Bitcoin 50k from here?

Boom! That was one great jump up!

Excitement is back!

Good news is back!

Are we in for the next bull run?

The case for bulls

The news has been great this week.

Blackrock - the largest investment fund in the world - is considering crypto investment. Goldman Sachs is opening a trading desk. Coinbase has just opened custody so wealthy individuals can invest in Bitcoin with ease.

There's even talk that an ETF proposal might be accepted on 10 august. Though I wouldnt bet my money on it - the SEC has rejected it 2 times before.

In short, Institutional money is coming in. And when they pump up the price, the retail money will come in again too.

Sentiment

My super bullish friends are currently careful. That's a good sign. Buy when everyone is fearful.

The Buy Markets Percentage indicates sentiment in the market. When sentiment is low, it is historically a good time to buy. This has been adviced to me some time ago and I should have listened. If only I bought a week ago.

The case for the bears

Let's be clear here. We're in a bear market. The trend is down.

The hype for crypto is in a dip wordwide. Google search volume for keywords as "buy crypto" is down to historic lows. Websites coinbase.com and coindesk.com get a lot less visitors then in december 2017. The Bitcoin transactions on the network are going down since january. Everything is in a down trend. And the price is generally down too.

Reversal?

It could be that this is the reversal. But this chart suggests its too soon for that.

Explanation: http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/

When the ratio is way up - like after the previous bubble in 2013 - we have a long slow way down. After 2013 the price declined for a 1,5 year.

This 2017 bubble was bigger than ever, and we should/could have many months of downward price action to come.