On Bitcoin as Digital Gold

Do we really want Bitcoin to be thought of as Digital Gold?

I'm not sure that we do.

I'm a fan of Bitcoin and related technologies and think they're here to stay. I'm not making any price predictions below.

Bitcoin Value

Bitcoin has scarcity and Bitcoin has utility. These are two aspects of precious metals, such as Gold, that are shared and most often parrotted in the media at the moment.

Bitcoin's scarcity is predictable and finite. Gold is finite and less predictable.

Bitcoin's utility stems from the fact that it is open, borderless and decentralised. Gold has utility in electronics and dentistry.

The value of Gold and Bitcoin, if measured on scarcity and utility alone, doesn't stack up against something like crude oil.

Novelty

Another factor in the value of both Bitcoin and Gold is novelty. Gold jewelery accounts for a non-trivial part of the price/demand of Gold. There's nothing wrong with novelty playing a part.

The novelty of Bitcoin also has a very significant impact on the price/demand. In this case, the novelty is driven by hype around the price alone. You only need to look at the media, including almost any crypto-investment YouTube channels, and you'll see that price gets the lion's share of coverage. We've seen the impact of novelty -- both for and against -- between September 2017 and December 2017 and then January 2018 to March 2018.

If novelty is a significant factor in setting the price, and its novelty is primarily the increasing price, it isn't hard to see why some folks are calling Bitcoin a bubble or a fraud. At very least, it's not an environment that will foster price stability.

Summary

If we all treat Bitcoin only as a speculative investment, it's likely that that's all it will be.

If more focus is put on utility and more frequent use, that will likely impact Bitcoin (and others) price for the better.

Gold bullion image by Mark Herpel and used unmodified under CC BY 2.0