The December Effect

Important tops and bottoms for bitcoin tend to occur in or around December. In fact, only the 2011 and 2019 tops manifested themselves in June. All the other major tops and bottoms were mostly in December with two in November and one in January. Can this still be a coincidence? Probably yes. Possibly no.

If we go up from here, than we've bottomed in November, not December. But it's not so clear that we've bottomed already. While a five wave up can be counted from this November 25 low, and a 61.8% retracement has taken place, there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for continuation; suggesting this is an a-b-c correction with a target of around 8400$ after which we'll return down for a new low, possibly in December.

Anyway, we need to break the resistance levels at 9500$ and the downsloping resistance line around 9200$, preferably with force, before there is more certainty regarding the start of wave 3.

Not that this is impossible. The weekly stochastics are still very oversold...

and the daily MACD's are diverging.

For the Renko chart to reverse trend, we need to close above 8000$ in the coming days; which seems to be almost a certainty.

I'm still incredibly bullish on bitcoin. Yes, it's possible that we revisit 6500$, or somewhat below that level - but after that, there is only one direction we can go: to the moon!