Will ETC crash after Callisto Fork?

First off let me say I am no "expert", I am an engineer/biologist who has been bitten by the block-chain and while I like to entertain other solutions as viable all signs point North here. But back to the point... the question I have is what will ETC do after the fork? So as a scientist, lets lay out the variables and then try and form a hypothesis that will obfuscate the NULL (nothing happens in my case) and make some sense.

Hypothesis 1: The price remains or increases.

This is possible if one or more happen.
1. Callisto has strong value on opening thus focusing attention of taking profits there. This also gives more allure to ETC as a blockchain capable of producing another valuable blockchain.
2. The crypto market is relatively stable at the time of the fork. If sharply rising all prices will track BTC and to smaller extent ETH and could cause a rise in price even if way down against fiat. If sharply falling then it could look like a place to "park" your cash as people are HODL. This is probably unlikely to occur. When they sell in my experience they sell it all, except Tether.... a conversation for another day!
3. People REALLY believe in the tech and the ability of the test platform "calisto" to bring about improvements in the main fork that will give it an edge in the world ecomony.

Hypothesis 2: The price quickly drops ( I would guess 24-28 level which is probably where it would be without fork)

1. This is possible if investors are simply putting money into coin due to fork. This is a real possibility, but personally I don't care if your going to fork if the backbone is not solid. In this case ETC will begin a strong sell off immediately after the block.
2. Investors believe that the airdrop will reduce value of coin or has caused coin to be artificially inflated.
3. Anything else happens.

Love to hear thoughts...

Cheers,

CoinSnapper