You cannot use only numbers to make a prediction about the market. It is about psychology and news cycles. Secondary to that are actual products and announcements and updates from the company. Also XRP as a token is NOT tied to the value of Ripple the company. So in the end XRP has no real use. The ripple network allows you to go from fiat to btc or btc to eth or anything in between, none of this requires the XRP token which translates into a company with a lot of hype partnering with banks but the reality is that the XRP token has no intrinsic value to the process, making them essentially worthless. Once people begin to understand this, the coin will tank. Much better version of XRP is XLM a fork of ripple called stellar. Their coin actually has value and aims to be a similar company.