I guess what you are saying is true. If Tron decides to halt the service on the launch day, that will be more evident and helpful for people to take a decision soon to move to Hive. But as far I see, the services won't stop that early if I'm not wrong.
I'm hoping to have a smooth transition from Steem to Hive especially the current dapps & steem related services. And if I were the Hive team, they should work on listing Hive in big exchanges, it is crucial for the success of this new chain.
I read in comments that their are steem users who wish to convert their steem to hive almost immediately if possible. That's aside from the airdrop.
Yes I guess that is going to happen for sure. Many big stake holders already said that they are going to dump Steem soon after the release and purchase Hive tokens.