RE: What's the right move for Steemians?
There is going to be a lot of debate about your math, so I'm going to avoid that subject.
Your point is well taken, though. Jumping in and out of your positions is not a good strategy. In the world of stocks it is well known that market timing is just a good way to enrich your broker. That is why active stock trading is out of fashion now and everyone uses Index funds to ride the long term market trend with minimal fees.
Once you buy STEEM or any cryptocurrency, you need to stop thinking about how much better off you would have been if you could have bought earlier. If you are in now you are in on the ground floor. Just relax and let the rest of the world catch up.
If you are worried about losing the money that you invested in crypto, then it probably means that you invested too much. Let's face the truth. This is likely the riskiest investment in your portfolio unless you buy things like out-of-the-money stock options.
I was in my twenties when my first stock investments evaporated in the Dot Com bubble. It was a loss of a few thousand bucks and it was a valuable lesson, so I don't mind having paid a Fool Tax back then. That doesn't change the fact that my little investment represented my entire portfolio, it is just that young people can and should take risks.
Almost twenty years later things are different. I've got a lot of money in crypto than I ever did in Dot Coms, but I'm not sweating it. I look at that money as the price of a ticket to ride on the crypto market roller coaster.
A friend bought Bitcoin at $100, sold at $5000, then watched the market peak and come back down close to $5000 again. When I asked him about it he was disappointed that he sold, not because he missed the opportunity to sell at nearly $20,000, but because he missed the thrill of having skin in the game.
The folks who are tempted to jump in and out of the market should probably just reduce their exposure to the cryptomarket until they can sleep well at night without worrying.
This is sage wisdom Professor... very fitting of your handle!