SuperEx丨Will quantum computers pose a threat to encryption security?
The leapfrog progress made in quantum computing in recent years has been constantly refreshing our understanding. In particular, the launch of Google’s latest generation of quantum chip, Willow, has once again ignited people’s attention to the potential of quantum computing.
The breakthrough performance of Willow is remarkable. In a task called “random circuit sampling”, it would take a classical computer approximately 1⁰²⁵ years to complete, while Willow easily solved it in less than 5 minutes. This feat not only consolidated Google’s leading position in the field of quantum computing but also indicated that “quantum supremacy” is quickly approaching reality.
In fact, this is not the first time that Google has demonstrated the powerful potential of quantum computing. As early as 2019, Google completed a task that would have taken a traditional supercomputer 10,000 years to finish with its Sycamore quantum processor, taking only 3 minutes and 20 seconds. These developments show that quantum computing is moving from the laboratory stage to practical applications, and the launch of Willow this time has further enhanced computing power and error correction capabilities, laying the foundation for the wide application of quantum computing.
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The Threat of Quantum Computing: Is There No Escape for Modern Cryptography?
With the accelerated development of quantum computing technology, its potential threat to modern cryptographic techniques can no longer be ignored.
The Vulnerability of Public Key Cryptography Algorithms:
Currently, public key cryptography algorithms such as RSA and ECC are widely used in Internet security and blockchain. These algorithms rely on the computational difficulty of integer factorization and discrete logarithm problems. However, with the advent of quantum computing, through Shor’s algorithm, these problems can be solved in polynomial time, directly undermining the security of these traditional cryptographic algorithms. For example:
· The threat to RSA: To crack a 2048-bit RSA key, it would take a traditional computer billions of years, while a mature quantum computer might only need a few hours.
· ECC in blockchain: Blockchain networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum widely use the Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) algorithm. Once quantum computing enters the practical stage, the assets in these networks will face huge risks.
The Potential Impact on Symmetric Cryptography:
Although quantum computing has less impact on symmetric encryption algorithms (such as AES), it can still halve the cracking time through Grover’s algorithm. For example, 128-bit AES encryption may need to be upgraded to 256-bit or higher to ensure security.
The Current Capability of Quantum Computing: Is the Threat Real?
Despite the huge potential of quantum computing, its development is still in the early stage. The most advanced quantum computers at present (such as the devices developed by Google, IBM, and the University of Science and Technology of China) are still handling hundreds of qubits, far from reaching the scale required to crack modern cryptographic systems:
· The number of qubits: To crack RSA-2048, approximately 4,000 error-free qubits are needed, while most current devices hover around 100.
· Error correction technology: The high error rate of quantum computing requires complex error correction algorithms. Even if hardware advances rapidly in the future, the additional resources required for error correction will increase significantly.
According to IDC’s prediction, the global quantum computing market is expected to reach $9 billion by 2030, but it may still take 10 to 20 years to achieve the actual ability to pose a threat to encryption.
The Challenges of Quantum Computing to Blockchain:
- The threat to blockchain assets such as Bitcoin:
The generation of Bitcoin addresses relies on Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). Once quantum computing matures, attackers can steal assets by cracking private keys. It is estimated that approximately 25% of the Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXO) in the Bitcoin ecosystem face the potential threat of quantum computing.
- Smart contract security:
Smart contract platforms such as Ethereum also rely on public key encryption technology. Quantum computing may disrupt their transaction verification process and even directly affect the credibility of the entire network.
Facing the potential threat of quantum computing, the global cryptocurrency industry has begun to actively deploy Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) technologies. The Post-Quantum Cryptography Algorithm Competition launched by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in 2022 has provided new solutions for the industry:
· Kyber and Dilithium algorithms: Used to replace traditional RSA and ECC encryption technologies.
· Hash signature technology: Provides additional protection against quantum threats.
In addition, innovations in the blockchain field are also accelerating. For example, projects like Ethereum 2.0 and Polkadot are exploring how to introduce post-quantum encryption technologies.
The advent of quantum computing is both an opportunity and a challenge. Just as the breakthrough of Willow has shown, the potential of quantum computing has far exceeded that of traditional computers, but it will still take time to turn laboratory technology into an actual threat. The cryptocurrency industry needs to adopt an open and forward-looking attitude, actively research and develop post-quantum technologies, and gradually transition to a new security framework.
Ultimately, the rapid development of quantum computing may force the technological innovation of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, thus promoting the construction of a more secure and efficient digital economy infrastructure. In this process, industry collaboration and innovation will be the key to meeting the challenges.
