WARNING: The Monumental Flooding At Lekki And Victoria Island, Lagos State, Nigeria.

Dear Steemites, this is to draw your

attention to the monumental flooding at

the Island section of a place called Lekki,

Victoria Island and Victoria Garden City

respectively, in Lagos, Nigeria.

The reason for this warning is because

these areas are where the LA creme of the

society lives and in which hosts several

multinational companies with expatriates

living and working therein. As I type this

now, the whole area has been submerged

in flood. People have fled the area and

some dangerous acquatic animals like

crocodiles and alligators have been

caught by some vigilant residents of the

area who are still around.

Below is an extract from a resident of the

area for your reading pleasure and to

buttress the seriousness of the issue.

Before going to work, I had jogged every

morning, often to the Alpha beach behind

our residence. It amazed me, at the time,

just by mere visual awareness, how each

year, the Atlantic claimed a significant

portion of the beach in a determined

advance. No one measured!

Again, every year, we experienced an

Socean surge in the area. I noticed that

each year, the surge advanced into the

Igbo Efon area significantly further than

the preceding year. No one measured.

••• Third, during the five years I appeared

live on Silverbird TV, there were times,

after an overnight rainfall, I literally swam

with my SUV to the partially submerged

TV station behind the Jakande Area.

That is not even where I am going. While

waiting for my slot on TV, I would go to the

Beach behind STV to meditate. Friends,

within a period of 5 years, I saw the ocean

claim 5 or 6 rows of coconut palm trees

lining the beach! That would have been

about 30 meters in 5 years! No one was

measuring! Why measure such things

when "God is in control?"

Well, then, using the available historical

sub-meter pixel satellite imagery of the

area and a digital elevation model, I did a

cursory study of the peninsula. What I saw

startled me. (But I must state upfront that

this was not a thorough scientific enquiry

that is critical for understanding the

gravity of a disaster lurking in the

distance.)

••• Number One: Lekki is completely flat -

there’s very insignificant variation in

altitude. Two: Lekki is somewhat below

sea level. A combination of those two

factors meant that a mere 50 cm rise in

the Atlantic ocean level could rapidly

build a handshake between the ocean and

the Lagoon. I hate to imagine the

implication to the VI-Lekki-Ajah corridor.

But who cares? And who should care

when “God is in control” as we say in

Nigeria. No one will measure.

••• About the time I worked in Chevron, the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) had estimated a very

conservative forecast of rise in ocean

levels of 65 cm by 2100. That has since

been adjusted to over 100 cm.

We may say, “Oh 2100 is a long way

ahead!” And that is what kills the “Black

Man!” (pardon the racial cliché). Lack of

foresight! Poor planning. Thinking and

living for the moment only. No one is

measuring.

Well, the bad news is that scientists are

not sure how fast or how soon this 100 cm

rise will happen and what other

geological events other than polar ice

melting could trigger the rise.

••• We saw a little rainfall a couple of days

and panicked. Like the behind of a hen

when the breeze blows, we were

confronted by our nakedness and utter

helplessness with just a little rain. How

about if it rained 40 days and 40 nights?

Here is the worst tragedy of all: We're not

learning!

“We have recently been inundated with

pictures of flooding all over Lekki in Lagos,

there have also been stories of continuous

rain for nearly a week. The pictures are

distressing especially for the people who

live in Lekki, Victoria Island, Aja etc.

“However what has been missing seems

to be any structured reports of the

amount of rainfall that has caused this.

How many millimeters of rainfall has

caused this amount of havoc.

This kind of information is invaluable in

proffering a solution to the problem. I

hate to think that perhaps there is no such

information available. Right there in

Victoria Island is the National Institute of

Oceanography and Marine Research. I

shudder to think that even they don't

have the data.”

That, my friends, is the tragedy of the

Nigerian situation. Someone who works at

the Agency that Uka referenced actually

confirmed that the data doesn’t exist! In

his depressing words, the Federal Agency,

like others, is there “just to receive

allocation and salary!”

••• Listen, people, it is impossible to run a

civilization on haunch and feelings! A poor

country will remain a poor country UNTIL

they begin to make RESEARCH and DATA-

DRIVEN decisions!

I’m terrified to imagine that no one is

capturing data on these floods! I’m

terrified that no agency is on TV showing

us an impact map of the event! Because

none exists.

••• Nature is so kind. The Vanguard

Newspaper report of July 8 began with “As

usual flood ravaged Lekki, Victoria Island

… after many days of down pour….”

Did you notice the “As usual?” Each year,

the Lekki-VGC-VI corridor receives a yellow

card. How many more yellow cards before

the red, no one knows. I’m not a Murphy

evangelist but from experience if a red

might come, it will come. It’s just a matter

of when.

•••Nevertheless, Lagos has zero natural

disaster contingency plan as many

families discovered over the weekend. No

one came for you as you watched your

beautiful sitting room turning into a fish

pond.

No one has even mentioned insurance in

the narratives.

Same thing in Port Harcourt. Aba Road is

to Port Harcourt what testicles are to a

man. Hold him 'there' and he throws up

his hands in surrender. If a disaster sinks

Aba Road 2 million residents will be

trapped in a rabbit hole.

••• If the Lagos government would listen,

there needs to be an urgent thorough

interdisciplinary study of the State

involving scientists, geologists, soil

scientists, satellite remote sensing

experts, GIS, oceanographers, marine

biologists, anthropologists, computer

scientists and so on. There are analytical

and predictive tools to model the next 5,

10, 50, 100 year scenarios and plan

intelligently.

••• At best, my people of Lekki, VGC, Ajah

and VI, please stay as dry as you possibly

can. That’s what Facebook tells me

whenever the rain is about to fall.

May God bless and keep you safe!

From Foluke Ibiteye

Dear Steemites, this is the situation right

now. For those of you thinking of visiting

the area or acquiring properties therein,

please be guided.

Thank you.