Bitcoin: EXPECT the UNEXPECTED
Technical Analysis and Elliot Wave applied to Bitcoin in a potential bear scenario.
Everyone is expecting the inverse head-and-shoulders to be confirmed as a major bullish signal.
If inverse head and shoulders gets confirmed, bitcoin will be headed to 14.000-15.000 levels.
Key fact is: this pattern could have been denied already
Let's expect the unexpected
Leading triangle has been broken downwards, which is a bear signal. If bitcoin can't mantain above 11k the underlying sentiment won't be as bullish as it was a few days ago.
Let's point out key levels that are likely to be tested in a bear scenario and will act as support zones.
This Elliot Wave Count is slightly different as the last ones I've been presenting here.
This one fits best as a future bearish scenario.
Why I'm showing a different EW Count?
The reason is, I'm always open to all possibilities.
Just try to trade likely scenarios while getting involved in profitable risk/reward ratios.
However, above 11k I'm still very bullish in bitcoin.
Unfurtunately, this is likely to go to 9k.
UPDATED MARCH 8TH HERE:
https://steemit.com/beyondbitcoin/@luiggih/bitcoin-expect-the-unexpected-2-entry-points-to-ride-next-bull-wave
UPDATED ! MARCH 10TH HERE
https://steemit.com/beyondbitcoin/@luiggih/bitcoin-expect-the-unexpected-3-new-bull-cycle-about-to-start
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Thanks for Reading!
Markets have a way of doing the opposite of what the consensus is. I watch the US Commitment of Traders (COT) weekly futures report to see what the speculators are betting on and what the smart money is doing with respect to many commodities and currencies. Almost every time the speculators get extremely bullish/bearish on something, it's a high probability bet the opposite is about to happen.
To my knowledge, BTC isn't being included in this weekly report yet. But, since Bitcoin bottomed at around 6K, the general thought has been looking for evidence to declare the all safe.
Let's see what happens. Since the alt coins follow Bitcoin, it could be another great time to buy them. The issue for me always is that I'm fully invested in cryptos holdings. I generally don't trade them. So, unless I can continue to fund positions from my monthly cash flows, opportunities come and go....
Where do you watch that COT report? Never heard of it.
Something I find very interesting is to check the total longs in bitcoin vs the total shorts.
You can't watch it overall but you can watch one of the biggest exchanges like Bitfinex. Ticker is: BTCUSDLONGS and BTCUSDSHORTS in tradingview.
I believe most alts are almost near the bottom. However, if BTC goes down, alts will follow so there is no point to start a position yet till BTC shows where is headed.
This is short term, of course. If you're willing to hold for months, right now is a great price to jump in most projects.
When the weekly COT report (comes out Fridays based on Tuesdays data, as I understand) shows something significant, one of my financial newsletters will include a particular sector, usually for Gold in an article. I tried to find the reports directly once, and it was very difficult. What I got was something that was difficult to understand at all. So my newsletters must take the data for the charts they show and put it into an easy to read chart. Here's an example from my Tradestops.com subscription last week.
I'll take a look and i will tell you what I see, okay? Thanks for the info and your daily support as always.
Wow nice call on this move! I noticed someone reused your material and figured I'd come here and give you an upvote and a follow. It's hard to get recognition even for the best of posts if you've not been here long and I know that can be frustrating. I see a lot of really good material here get next to nothing as far as rewards go and then there's the template type posts that some people do every day and get huge payouts for them.
It's not a fair or perfect system but it's still young and growing so hang in there. You keep posting good material like this and you're gonna go far.
As far as this move for bitcoin goes...I was tempted to pick up a bit today but I'm thinking you're probably right that we have some more downside potential so I'll sit on my hands and wait.
Nice work! :)
Thanks for you support. Means a lot to me as you're a very well reputated member. Hopefully one day I'll have such a good reputation too!
Regarding to bitcoin, I wouldn't hurry up to buy back yet.
There is still some corrective moves going on. Looks like shorts are accumulating for the next wave down.
Ono! Looks like the bears are winning tonight. You bear scenario looks correct @luiggih! :(
Thanks lizette! Let's see how it plays out
Rightly predicted (Unfortunately)
Always a good chance to buy cheaper! :)
You got a 4.34% upvote from @upmyvote courtesy of @luiggih!
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Good call, time to buy some more bitcoin soon I guess;) When would you buy in if you had some money laying around?
Thanks @holm
Check out my latest bitcoin analysis here with some entry points:
https://steemit.com/beyondbitcoin/@luiggih/bitcoin-expect-the-unexpected-2-entry-points-to-ride-next-bull-wave