#61 - Behind the scenes

What is up everyone?

Haven't updated on Bitcoin for some time now so today we are going to do just that and I'll also show you that I'm far from always being right. This is a game of probabilities and if you don't expect to be always right, your emotional journey will be much easier through the ups and downs of trading.

Currently, people are still dis-accumulating Bitcoin as can be seen in the OBV. In case you have never used this indicator, the OBV actually tells you the quantity of a given stock/coin people are actually holding.

This indicator is independent of price action and it tells you the true intent of people. In the image above we see that the price has made a higher low but the indicator is showing a lower low, a signal that further downside is likely.

If we zoom out we see that the big diagonal resistance is yet to be crossed and that we have had several inverted HVF setups to date that performed to target.

In case you don't know what a HVF is, check out the post where I go over the basis of HVF Theory and what characteristics of price behavior I am looking for on a chart:

https://steemit.com/trading/@beindependentbb/19-what-is-the-hunt-volatility-funnel-hvf

As these setups have been performing to target, further downside is our current bias and as has been previously disclosed, the greatest position currently held is sitting in cash on the sidelines.

Lastly, I would like to show you that our method is not always right. Below you will find a call that was made to the downside but it turned out to not break below the green dotted line as would be expected:

REEEEEEEEEE

No position was taken, but the point is that you will be wrong in a lot of calls that you make. And that is alright because eventually, you will get it right. And you build from there.

If you are not ok with being wrong from time to time, you will find it really challenging to win in this field long-term imo.

As always, take care!