Bitcoin Market Update September 03
Bitcoin Price Update
September 03, 2018
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Gains, gains and more gains. The last few weeks have been an exciting time in the Crypto Community. Alt Coins have been popping, Bitcoin has been rising, and the champagne and trade signals have flowed copiously from Cracking Crypto's Discord Channel and Community. Completed signals and excitement have stirred Cryptopians to belief in a possible new bull run, after long months of unceartainty and watching bags accumulated last year immolate like our dreams of that Rari life.
Let's take a look at our chart today shall we? What is Bitcoin up to, and where do we see price heading in the near term.
Long-Term Positioning
First I'll show the very simple long-term chart formation I've seen developing this entire year. Descending triangle, very easy to see. The range has been quite obvious to trade within since May, and those who have been following my advice have been making consistent profits based off this easy strategy.
If we look at the current price action, we can see that we attempted a breakout of the triangle allready back in mid-august, and the result was a capitulation because the price action isn't tight enough, the triangle hadn't squeezed enough. We can see that we formed a higher low on this downswing and we are attempting a second breakout of the triangle, but price action seems remarkebly similiar. I do not think we have enough volume to breakout of the triangle at this time.
As you can see we retraced almost 80% of this last rally. Since we truly are moving into the triangle squeeze where price levels are contracting, I would expect this retracement to be less dramatic. Ideally we would see a golden retracement here, a 0.618 retracement which would put our expected reversal point around $6590. If we retrace a little more, say to the 0.786 then we could see a price level of $6405 before we bounce.
Our next rally after this retrace may finally be the one. We will wait to see what volume does and what our other indicators and price action tell us on how to trade it. I have supplied you two distinct targets for long term shorting opportunities over the next several months. Using cross-leverage is reccomended, if you know how to use it. Do not gamble with more than 10x leverage, just don't do it.
TD Sequential Strategy
The Weekly Chart
We can see we did hit a nine on the weekly chart which led to this short-term bounce. Plotted on the chart is the 30% profit that was on the table for following the buy signal of the Buy Setup indicated by the completed nine count to the downside. We are now range trading however we can see our Risk Lines and our Support and Resistance. 8904 is our Resistance level, which if broken yields a bullish signal, and 4131 is our Support Level, which if broken is a strong bearish signal. Long positions have a weekly risk level of 4651. Keep in mind this is for trading on the weekly time frame with generally more capital and lower leverage.
The Daily Chart
We can see wonderful signals we received from our TD Strategy on the daily chart. We can see the perfected Nine to the downside giving us a beautiful entry position upon the candle close, and we can also see with precision how the nine count the the upside gave us the perfect sell opportunity right at the top of the triangle. Now it is true, we rallied beyond that. But that was a 12% profitable trade, multiplied by your leverage. Nothing to sneeze at with such reliable precision.
Our custom TD script automatically plots our risk level for entering a long position based on a potential recycling of our nine count to the upside, indicated by the black crosses. That number is $7354.
Our current Support is at $6350 and resistance at 8178. Again, if support is broken it is bearish, if resistance is broken it is bullish. I believe when our resistance is broken on the daily chart it will be the signal for the next true bull market, similar to what we saw last fall/winter.
You can see the blue line I have marked on the chart. If price falls below this level I believe we will fail the triangle test of support and retrace back to a lower Fib level as indiciated above in the Fib overview chart. That level is $6980.
Fisher Transform, DMI, Shorts & Longs
Taking a look at our volatility indicators, we can see that Fisher Transform confirms our bearish bias. It seems to indicate that we will soon see a crossover to the downside. Note that the way we have Fisher Transform set up (one of the most reliable reversal indicators) it has only one candle of lag. Meaning with a stunning degree of accuracy, when we see a crossover or crossunder in the Fisher, price is only behind one candle. Price does move in the direction of the crossover.
ADX is a little more bullish however, we can see that DI+ is above the ADX and ADX is rising towards our entry signal of 25. When ADX crosses 25 with DI+ above it, that is an indication of a bullish trend strengthening and an entry signal. It seems we have a few more days for it to change or make up it's mind for sure what it is doing, however it is mildly bullish at the moment. The only thing that weakens it is the downturn of the DI+.
Shorts & Longs is more bullish. We can see that Shorts have taken a big spike, which generally means that price is going to do the opposite thing. This isn't me being sarcastic, just go back in history and compare this indicator to price action. It means that people make poor trading decisions (many do at least) and that this pushes price into buying and selling climaxes. When there's no more buyers, nobody can stop the sellers from exhausting price. That's why you see price turn down after a buying spree. Simple supply and demand, see Wyckoff Theory of Trading.
Looking at the Bid Ask Sum we can see that Bids have dropped dramatically, but Asks have also decreased but to a significaly lower level. This supports our bearish bias.
Conclusion
Price is going down. Shorts are in the marketplace with our stops at $7351. Price targets of $6590 and $6405 for the long-term. Again, don't gamble with more than 10x leverage. You're not a good trader, you're an adrenaline junkie if you do that. Thanks guys, and happy trading.
Sincerely,
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I'm not a financial adviser. The information here is for education purposes. Trading and investing are wonderful things to do, and it's OK to take advice and to learn. I'm glad you're here right now reading this, educating yourself. Don't take my word as the gospel, and be careful. All investment and trading opportunities carry risk, I'm sure you reading this have the potential in you to profit from a careful trading plan, and wise investment choices. Do it right, do your research, and don't trade stupid. Very best of luck to you!.