Forecasting Bitcoin Prices on March 2018 using Monte Carlo Method

in #bitcoin7 years ago


Timeframe (Chart) : D1 (Daily)
Timeframe (Projection) : Monthly
Period : 1 March - 31 March 2018
Method : Monte Carlo Method
Random Number Generation : Pseudo Random Number Generator (PRNG)
Random Number Generator Algorithm : B.A. Wichman and I.D. Hill Algorithm
Input Parameters :

  1. Daily Market Cap Growth and Decay (Gaussian/Normal Distribution)
  2. Drift (Beta Distribution)
  3. Forecasted BTC Supply (Linear Time Series Function)
  4. Supply Decay Factor (Lower Incomplete Gamma Function)
    Numbers of iteration : 40,000 steps

Blog Post : https://steemit.com/@cryptobility
LinkedIn : https://www.linkedin.com/in/rizal-irnandi-hidayat-27792553
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Donation Address :
BTC : 1KZQipWvGBL6PijbeE1QEGMDpe18U9zJkY
ETH : 0x9f7d072e407d2f79ea165a02b38c8d05d1fcd3d2


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