Bitcoin $17,000 Target Update & SegWit2x Returns
Bitcoin consolidated for a little while at around $13,750 after I released my video originally setting a $17,000 sell target for Bitcoin. I originally determined this price target as there is substantial resistance at that price level and Bitcoin had little support under it given the quick fall to $10,500 and rapid recovery back up to $16,500. A muted hype is beginning to build for the return of the Segwit2x hard fork.
Now that Bitcoin has had some time consolidating at $13,750, that support level has become stronger which reduces risk. Given this, while I still plan to sell some Bitcoin at approximately $17,000 if we see it shoot up to there from here, it will be significantly less than I intended to sell back when I originally made the video.
Furthermore, in an ideal world where we see Bitcoin consolidate a little longer around low $15,000s, that will build a solid support closer to Bitcoin's price and I will take out my limit order entirely. When Bitcoin grows in a step-like fashion, there is more support under the market which I prefer over it rocketing straight up (and hence is why I am hesitant buying it at all time highs or after it increases 30% in a day).
SegWit2x hard fork is anticipated to occur on December 28th at block 501451. Given this, I will be moving all the Bitcoin I have on exchanges to my hardware wallet prior to the snapshot. If price accelerates to $17,000 at that time, I will not sell any as I obviously won't have any on exchanges.
The reason I am interested in acquiring this hard forked currency is NOT because I think it is worth anything. It's just stealing the name of SegWit2x to make people it is worth something, when in reality it's a completely different vision for Bitcoin that will likely flunk altogether. However, Bitcoin Gold has illustrated to me that even complete failures (forgive me, those of you who are invested) can be given high market valuations, so I'm interested in picking it up regardless.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin & the upcoming hard fork? Let me know in the comments below and thanks for watching / reading!
What are your thoughts for Bitcoin in the future?
A - Could it be considered as the medium of valuation for crypto currencies, where all other crypto currencies are compared to a Bitcoin. Same as you see now with the dollar $ (Gold $ to $, Oil price to $, etc).
When the market becomes more balanced, you might have crypto currencies being more expensive than Bitcoin, but because Bitcoin has been longer in circulation, it will always be the dominant currency that other crypto currencies are evaluated to.
Or B -
Bitcoin is the old, a person need to prepare for the more advanced block chains and tangles?
I have had my doubts about Bitcoin, but the support and development towards crypto currencies have been implemented to a point where you can not just take it away, worldwide.
Seeing as you not consider selling your Bitcoin but keeping it, there must be a reason for your decision.
I do believe that the market will balance (I think it will look like a crash), where the amount of crypto currencies will be reduced to only the strongest few. Which will be good, because it almost seems like an explosion of start-up crypto platforms, and some are very over-valued.
That is my question to you and personal point of view looking at the logic of things. I am still new to Crypto currency and your channel has helped me a lot to understand it better. Please correct me if my point of view is completely wrong.
I don't have time to get an offline wallet.
What's plan B?
exodus.io
As long as you control your private keys, it doesn't matter - you just need to be able to import those private keys into a wallet that will support it afterwards. However, I haven't seen a single one yet that has claimed support for this version of Segwit2x so likely just going to be a dud. I wouldn't bother if you don't have a substantial amount of Bitcoin to cover the cost it takes to move it to an appropriate location.
I put my bitcoin in several paper wallets.
I've been paranoid about money since 9/11 and do goofy things.
Thanks for the feedback.
FYI here is a pretty good article about private keys and ways to store them.
https://coinsutra.com/bitcoin-private-key/
I'm curious, why did you choose to use a hardware wallet over a paper one or a desktop wallet? Obviously, a desktop is less secure but a paper one sounds super secure. The USB scares me because I've had so many of them die on me over the years.
BTW, Segwits site now has a video on it that's so outrageous it's funny.
It's hard to find a clear answer especially since a lot of news is from before the second announcement on Dec 26th (still looking). Please reply if you have any other info.
I think hardware is the best option but some exchanges may support the fork. This is a list of exchanges from October which might give some minor indication but don't count on it. At first glance, I don't see any that have made a more recent official announcement.
WARNING THIS LIST IS NOT ACCURATE ANYMORE
https://blog.coinigy.com/2017/10/comprehensive-list-of-exchange-segwit2x-stances/
I've seen others recommending Binance and Bittrex because they are generally good at this but I don't see any official announcements.
Other Sources:
SegWit2x has a list of exchanges on the home page, I haven't heard of any of them.
B2X Official Site FAQs: http://b2x-segwit.io/faq/
B2X Futures Trading (probably not recommended): https://hitbtc.com/?ref_id=59e74ee59e961
Great video. What do you think about the claims that 1 BTC will reach 1 mil. USD by 2020?
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-surges-to-16500-1-million-by-the-end-of-2020/
I think they're wishful thinking and pandering to hype, but I guess I would have said the same about $20k by the end of this year.
As much as you say that RSI doesn't hint towards the overall trend of the market, as someone who watches this very closely, I would say it does.
First off I would like to say that on a fundamental level, RSI as well as any other indicator for anyone new who's reading this only gives a possible direction that the market would go in not a concrete one. This means that regardless of how bullish/overbought a market is or bearish/oversold a market is, markets can still push to the upside as well as the downside respectively despite its indication towards the opposite conclusion as this video mentions. BUT even though the market doesn't do what we expect it to do on an intuitive sense, the RSI still does reflect market behavior i.e. if the market is overbought, the RSI drops a bit but then shoots back up to reflect the continued bullish activity which we predicted not to happen. The opposite is true for oversold markets. This concept continues on further even if the market meets our expected predictions for RSI despite the video saying that it doesn't. If one looks closely regardless of when you see the RSI drop or increase, it's always correlated with the general DIRECTION that the market is heading in. The key word here is direction and not MAGNITUDE. Whenever the RSI drops, that doesn't mean that the market will drop a substantial amount nor does it mean that whenever RSI increase, the market will increase a substantial amount. This is the point that I think is missing from your video. That despite predictions of the market increasing or decreasing dramatically based off of RSI predictions not being true for what we see in Bitcoin, we still DO see a correlated directionality no matter which time frame youre looking at.
Hey CI, love your posts and videos.
Maybe you can answer a question for me. Other than as a currency and as speculation , what are we buying when we buy a crypto currency? I hear a lot of statements like "Company X is setting up an infrastructure system with a crypto that is revolutionary," but wouldn't I buy the stock of the company if I want returns on their revolutionary system?
Take for example gold and Ripple. If I buy gold, I might demand it as a currency (store of value), as a speculative buy, or even as a metal. If someone wants my gold to make jewelry, they have to buy it from me. If I buy Ripple, it could act as currency if valued by others, it could act as a speculative bid, but I don't see how it acts as value within inter-bank lending and account balancing? The reason: If individuals were to buy enough Ripple to take too much liquidity out of the banking system, they could just start a new block chain with the same technology and call it Ripple2 or Rapple or something else. There would be two technologically identical blockchains ... one used for interbank trading and one on which individuals could speculate and hold "currency."
Wouldn't it work this way for most crypto-currencies? We're not really obtaining value of the technology, but just the quality of the currency from that technology. This would point to there being 3-4 long term players that survive this nascent industry.
It'd be easy to say this hard fork is bizarre and lacking a lot of clarity but the same can be said when BCH was forking in my opinion.
I'm going to try and go for a bizarre option of buying in and out on gdax for the snapshot in the knowledge that Coinbase will hodl my B2X and will release my funds if it becomes worth something. I don't think any Coinbase users can complain about getting BCH 3 months later when they finally released funds up at $3k.
After the BTG fork where BTC lost 10% of it's value prior to the snapshot I'm not going to be buying in to transfer to a desktop/hardware wallet paying upto $100 for two transfers, as well as potential losses from fork fears for a currency that might be worth nothing.
Overall I'm still waiting for BTC to close above the current resistance level before buying back in to stay in. Buying in for B2X is not only a risky move, it's also not necessary.
You'd be better off buying into futures if you're that eager.
Great video as usual. Long-term viewer here. Since you seem to be active here, let me ask you here.
I have been playing with Elliot waves recently, and found them to have a decent predicative power in trending crypto markets. After doing some analysis on the post-September run-up of BTC, I found that this could be part of an ABC retracement that goes all the way down to 8000$. From the technical perspective, there is nothing that precludes BTC from going further down (the indicators seem prime for a lower move, too).
This is my "no panic" level. Lower than that, and I would start fidgeting. What are your thoughts on that?
Elliott Waves predict human market trading psychology.
Obviously, nobody is interested in bitcoin going down and expiring, bulls turn bears just to sell high then buy at a low price and drive it up again. It makes no psychological sense that bitcoin would be going down below 15k now - or if then only very briefly before shooting up again. It was nice to go down to 11 from 19 but right now ? I mean I don't care, I'm more of a day trader with every new day... but it's generally easier to trade an uptrending market, so everybody is interested in bitcoin moving steadily up so they can play their games.
Update - well once again, the weak hands have all decided to bugger off again, and so I hope bitcoin will fall to 4000 before more serious people come back from holiday ;)
I saw a transaction average of $1100 today, so this is what we have, millions of small investors who will run a the first flea bite. This means what with Wall Street joining in next yea, volatility will be INCREDIBLE, and losses of small investors magnificent, hodling through may become a dangerous tactic if not sustainable over at least 3 months or so, with the possibility of success reserved for those who can spend 18 hours online on a regular basis. I'm game.
I don't use Elliot Wave analysis, so I don't have much to offer you other than to say $8,000 was the same level I came up with, just different means, in terms of being the lowest I'd be comfortable with.
You mentioned how you are going to take advantage of the upcoming hard fork of the "Segwit2X" imposters. It would be really nice, if you'd make a step-by-step like video on how to claim forked coins and what potential risks are involved at which step and how to possibly eliminate those risks when claiming forked coins alltogether. Even if the guide would only work for this particular coin, it would be nice to learn the gist of these mechanics.
Interesting post. What do you think about the possibility that a correction is still on the way ? I'm new to chart analysis but maybe the consolidation we see at the moment is just a 'pause' before another 'crash' till like 10k$ or 8k$ ? Do you think it will be a good buying opportunity ? BTC have huge variance and I won't be surprised if january bring us to 8k$ then to 20-30k$ then back to 15k$ again ...the real question in the coming 2 months will be have I to hodl or trade this dime lol
Anyway the forks are coming and bitcoin will have to change in a way or another, the more obvious that have to be implemented are lightning network + bigger blocks(to fight BCH). Then smart contracts to fight ETH of course and maybe some SegWit if there is time for that. I'm not a BTC fanboy, just realistic in the way BTC has to change to stay number 1, my favorite coins that I use and hodl is still LTC :-). All these forks will bring huge variance in the prices, and also make a lot of news, even in the mainstream media, that will also take a lot of money so variance in the prices. 2018 will be a crazy year for cryptos.
You underestimate the power of the bull crypto investor
It's because I don't underestimate it that I have any money in this market at all.