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RE: Bitcoin inflation rate to drop below that of the USD for the first time ever!
That will drop bitcoin to roughly a 1.8% inflation rate.
A number that is below the 2% target rate of most central banks.
Keep in mind that when the central banks talk about a 2% target, they're talking about CPI. In Bitcoin, inflation rate refers to the expansion of the money supply. Bitcoin has likely been below the USD for some time in terms of monetary expansion. CPI is something impossible to measure in Bitcoin because a) it's rarely used for household goods and b) it goes up and down dramatically within a measuring period.
Very good points, though this was the closest comparison I could get. You are correct though, not quite apples to apples. Though the result is somewhat similar.
It is actually possible to compare Bitcoin supply to the USD supply, it's just a matter of which definition of money supply you choose to use. IMO M1 is the closest comparison.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm
From the above link, USD M1 expanded 3.8% from February 2018 to February 2019. M2 expanded 4.2% in the same period. By this it seems Bitcoin monetary expansion is currently quite similar to USD expansion but will drop to less than half USD expansion soon. If we accounted for lost coins and removed them from the totals, it might change those numbers but that would be tricky to say the least.
I haven't checked the link yet but does M1 account for money taken out of circulation each day as well?
If you mean bank notes and coins replaced, yes it does. But M1 also includes bank deposits. Narrow Money only includes notes and coins in circulation, but that's not a good figure to compare to because in the fiat system notes are created on demand.
Yep that is what I was referring to.