BTC update 02.09.17
BTC has now entered a very dangerous phase of constant big ups and downs as it approaches wave 5 of III after which there will be a bigger correction (approx 1000- 2000$ from the high)
If you don't understand elliott waves, it is likely that you exit your trades too early now or too late. So it is better to take some profits soon. Yes BTC can go much higher before this wave cycle ends, because of an extending wave 5, but I don't think it will go much higher than 5600$ with this cycle. Here is why:
The 162% extension is a usual target for this wave and offers strong resistance. We will see soon if this target is reached or not and i will keep you updated.
Expect high volume and increasing ups and downs for the coming week or weeks. This is the time where most traders loose money because of greed and emotions. Don't let your emotions get in your way and make rational decisions only.
Let's take a closer look at the chart.
If you compare this with the chart above, you can see that the green wave 4 has already started to play out, so I expect new all time highs by tuesday evening.
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If you think this to be useful information:
DISCLAIMER: I provide trading ideas using EW and Pattern analysis. The material in this post does not constitute any trading advice whatsoever. This is just the way i see the charts and what my trading ideas are. The author of this post is holding positions in this market at the time of this post.
If you make any trades after reading this post it is completely in your responsibility. I am not responsible for any of your losses. By reading this post you acknowledge and accept that.
Tell me what you think...
Have a nice day :-)
This post has received a 100.0 % upvote from @boomerang thanks to: @smartvoter
This post has received a 100.0 % upvote from @boomerang thanks to: @tufkat
Thank for alert this. But btc is sometimes unpredictable.. right for the moment. It already overbought for long past few month. And at the meantime still all time high.
We better take precious
I have nothing against HODLers whose goal is "to get the much bigger reward further down the line". Their money (and BTC), their choice. However, I've discovered that - for me at least - it's better to take some profits and money off the table whenever BTC and other coins reach a certain height.
Whenever something goes so fast, so soon, there is bound to be a correction. The last significant one was in July when it went down from the high of near $3,000 then to a low of $1,800-ish.
The HODLers who did nothing recouped the paper loss, of course. And then some. More power to them. But the traders did even better - selling some when they felt things were getting too heated, plus when immediate support didn't hold. And then buying again when they were reasonably sure support had been established.
For now, I'm looking at the previous high of $4,450 as support. That would be a good time to buy. But of that support doesn't hold, the next one will be 3,850.
Not a bad idea to have some fiat at hand...to take advantage of a possible buying opportunity.
BTC is not going up as fast as you think it is. Compare it to the last big drop when it went from 1800 to 2300 in day. That was fast... at 4800 this would be comparable to an increase from 4800 to 6150 in day ... this is normal paced steady uptrend slowly reaching the end of wave 5
Actually I'm not expecting it to. I do know that many are hoping for a quick correction and for the BTC train to move ahead on its merry way again. But I'm with you on the technicals - I feel it will take some time before the $5,000 level is challenged again.
Instead of "the $5k point", the more immediate action for BTC is in ensuring whether the support level holds. Then it will have to form a new base where the daily moves are somewhat flattish although with shallow up and down spikes. Like it had been previously when it was around 4,100-200. Before challenging and breaking the previous 4,450 high.
I also believe that in the near future, there will be a shakeout. Weak holders who came in near the high will cut loss. Plus those wanting to lock in their profits. We will have to see the price action over the next few days first.
I'm fine if I were to be proven wrong, i.e. this correction will be swift as some people hope. But I don't think so. In fact I'm anticipating some turmoil and pain ahead.
Sorry buddy, but :
if it was a normal technical analyse of an Stock ( a real company!), yes it will be a bouble and price needed to eventully fall!!!
BUT its BTC people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
every day 1000s of pepole are joining!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And they willing to pay a lot of:
Its BTC people!
Get the vision!!!!
"every day 1000s of pepole are joining!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" <--- With nobody selling...?
BTC now at $4,422 ...
Would be great if those "1000s of pepole (sic)" were to come in right now as the charging cavalry.
Sorry buddy - the market doesn't care if it's bitcoin or jackshit. The law of supply and demand always holds true.
Very nice work
Don't stop ever
I will try to do this fulltime in 2-3 years if steemit and cryptos still exist then ;-) Right now I am building the foundation for that, investing in the future. Wish me luck
Good luck! Thanks for sharing this info!
The dollar now setting up for the last move lower, which is my "new" excuse why the cryptos will get decimated...altho I "might be" back on "excuse #1" by Th of this week. Excuse #1 as you recall was the decimation of Silly Con Valley, Cali., the epicenter of this stock market bubble. I'm "trying" to track the hurricane in the atlantic ocean towards N.Y.C...epicenter #2. :-) Let's see if BTC tracks the "little dip" my bitcoin tracker GBTC made yesterday. :O
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=gbtc&x=41&y=19&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
I guess "actual" Bitcoin traders were too giddy yesterday to realize somebody pee'd in the punch bowl. :-)
WTF happened to GBTC? Why was it screwed so hard? No sign of that in real BTC. Hope you were able to profit from it ;-)
The euro will get stonger aproaching 1.50 in 2018. Which means there is no way the stock market bubble in the us is gonna pop. There will be crazy buying sprees in the last phase of market euphoria. If you are short then, it will ruin you completely.
GBTC not even enuff shares to short but I still use it to track BTC. "If" GBTC can recover to take out teh high then I will gar-own-tee a move of BTC to zero. :-) Both the USD and U.S. treasuries now setting up for final moves lower as the world's two safe havens. USD tracker UUP just generated an ADX sell signal, so either it now (bullishly) sells down to a new low on this 10 day chart, or it (bearishly) rallies and then fails in short order. Either way, a new low for this 10 day chart is coming. I figger it rallies "slightly" on Tue before selling dooown, setting up the markets in general for Argamegdon! :-)
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=uup&x=57&y=18&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
I will be "shocked!" if it trades thru 24.15.
Nice post thanks @ew-and-patterns - what do you see as the BIG drivers for these big up and down adjustments? Like in general - what is causing this to happen and can you elaborate a bit more on these elliot waves in a crypto perspective? Thanks :)
What drives it is fear and greed. I have no other explanation for theese moves. All I can say is that if you have basic elliott wave knowledge, you will see that it works beautifully in most liquid cryptos, as it does in any other market like Forex, indices and stocks.
The moves are geting bigger now because different wave degrees are starting to interact more. small degree wants a correction, big degree wants up...
Thanks for clarifying :)
In a way I want it to hit 5 and pull back so as to create a buying opportunity.
Only stupid people would buy at 5$ because the bullish wave count would be destroyed, meaning it would go to 0$ and never recover ;-)
I should have been clearer. My original comment intended to state not a pull back to $5, but rather hitting what you refer to as "wave 5".
Ok ;-) this was a misunderstanding. Yes I will make an update when the big correction is due... Thanks for stopping by.
Thanks. Now i'm aware. :-)
Nice analysis. Hmmmm....
What is your track record. What are some predictions you got right?
I have no track record recorded, because this does not say anything about if you are profitable or not. You can have 90% winning trades and still loose money. I have a forex trading bot with this performance. But it is not profitable, because the loosers erase the winners because they are bigger. My winning trades are usally 3.5 times bigger than my loosing trades because I am very good at only trading good chance reward ratios ;-)