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RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: Don't Confuse the Trees for the Forest
Hey guys i would be really interested on what the community overall thinks of the market right now ! Does it look like it will go up or do you think it will go down? Would love to know what you think just comment with down or up please! :)
Institutions, regulations and the right mix between FUD and measured encouragement have hypnotized the sheeple (you, me) into a sedate investment pattern. Price these days isn't really that volatile anymore, the rises and falls get determined by bots.
There will be regular-surprising dips to make the chickens panic and take their money, but on the whole we will be watching a slow ascent towards 20k in late May/early June and about 30 in October, maybe 35 at Christmas. If you want to earn money fast, try alts or day-trade. otherwise hodl.
Business insiders have opined that in their opinion, the crypto market has been successfully defused. Dumb money (millions of inexperienced little investors, most smartphone users from third world countries) have learned that it's not them who are making the market, it's them who pay.
With charts going down or sideways very frequently, that is two thirds of the time, little investors are bound to lose, so their interest is waning.
They are now mass-withdrawing from the market, understanding that "get rich quick" is no longer an option.
Skyrocketing cryptos will be a rare high-risk exception, and only insiders to a pump can profit from them.
Therefore, little investors will be either sending their money back to their bank accounts, where it can have real-life use, or trying to play the forex markets.
Crypto, from now on, will be in the hands of the very people it was designed to ward off : the money industry.
If you watch the crypto charts with hindsight these days, you cannot overlook that the regular, mechanical action there is mostly being caused by the market makers' trading bots, with occasional pumps and dumps to shoot off stop losses and sell orders of the remaining, clueless human operators.
Deal with it or keep listening to the massive steemit prophets, and quit your job as it will be a 24/7 affair.
Firstly you have a point there but i doubt that all the bots in the world are linked together and move money the same way to manipulate the prie in a way that is somehow relevant i think that the wales are moving the price more than the bots.
Bots are programmed a lot alike, their users can adjust them - and he users are often whales ;)
What does it matter whether it's bots operated by humans or humans themselves? As long as they keep buying higher than I did, I'll be very happy.
You will find that bots are way faster than you, but also that they have no emotions, and TA is built on human emotions. A market made up exclusively by bots might simply go sideways forever, having ups and downs of 500+ or minus where everybody would buy and sell, buy and sell... that wouldn't be bad.
The danger lies in that they are programmable and that their masters will sometimes take the rudder, and especially when normal users do what can be expected of normal users, like place their stop losses where all the massive prophets tell them to place their stop losses.
In such a case a low will suddenly dip way past your stop loss, trigger it, go way lower than anyone could expect and then shoot up again before anyone has time to place an order, or they will suddenly shoot high up to trigger a pocket of buy orders, which makes the rate rise even higher, then the humans who like to buy green will jump in to ride the spike, which will then magically turn red and eat all their gains... this is how the combo of bots and institutional investors can damage you.
Algos basically NEVER buy higher than you do, but they may buy every low, which you can't.
You're talking about a much shorter time-frame than I am. I'm not stupid enough to try to beat bots at day-trading! The bot version of me would obviously win, even if I were the best human trader in the world.
However, just because the micro-term is dominated by bots doesn't mean that you can't beat the market by expanding into a wider time frame where lightning fast orders lose their advantage. Algorithms have limitations, and many bots lose money, because of the bigger trends. Who are they losing money to? Well, to those of us playing a longer game than their algorithms are designed to comprehend.
91% of traders lose money when they trade.
If you're saying that you'll just hodl, that is okay with me.
You just need strong nerves in case you bought BTC at below 9k and watched it rise to 19k and now it's down at nine with a further dip straight ahead, more nerve if you bought above - and even if you have the nerve you still also need to afford the time, many months.
Ideally, you should already be rich when you start to trade.
Much better psychological base.
hodl? Too late, I already sold above 14 and bought again at 8 and sold again at 11. That's what I mean by "not short-term." Day trading is too volatile and fast for human hands, but week-trading and month-trading are a little more predictable.
Really though I prefer when the market is up and I can just go with BTC/Altcoin pairs and watch my portfolio grow no matter what trade I make, haha. Dollar/BTC pairs in a down market is stressful, you're right it helps that I already own my house, I can just easily watch my portfolio tank and not even notice an impact on my life.
Seems we're all having the same problem, and getting wiser ;)
Both!
I think it will take a while before bitcion stabilizes on double figures. I am not good at crypto prediction, but it is my honest opinion that it may take us to around July this years to hit above 15K. I like to be optmistic, and to tell myself that the value will rise sooner than later, but i am also not blind to the fact that the current drop is the second in just about two months. So it is a really unpredictable time.
" I am not good at crypto prediction"..............join the club, nobody is!
Ask yourself how likely it is that new demand will enter the picture - whether that be from individuals in developing nations as is often possited as a growth driver, or the potential for 'institutional money'. If you think there will be buyers to outstrip suppy then the price will increase. If not.....
Don't forget that available supply also matters. The vast majority of supply is held by just a few individuals, and the way they decide to sell or hold effectively determines the available supply. If they hoard, prices rise. If they dump, prices fall.
Until they have unloaded a lot more of their stakes, we would need to see orders of magnitude of shifts in demand to offset the whales' potential for supply manipulation.
Down, here's why:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@waygreenergrass/bitcoin-price-trend-analysis-possible-support-targets