Bitcoin (BTC) Evening Update: Could Altcoins Rise while BTC corrects? Check out this analysis!
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SUMMARY
I've updated the Elliott Wave count as shown below. This has white wave 1 raised a bit higher but the destination remains the same. So, the key would be to count the subwaves of white wave (1).
I've added the channel lines for the impulse wave to blue (1). If the waves fit well within a channel, it's confirmation that there is an impulse in progress. This chart shows white wave (5) at $19,607. One consideration I'm giving is that once Bitcoin hits blue wave (1) and corrects to blue wave (2), the Altcoins might not and instead rise. This would be the situation if bitcoin to altcoins become non-phasic. What I mean by this is that when BTC corrects its cycle will be declining; however, if the cycle of the Altcoins are not decline but rather inclining. Let;s see what happens,
The below is an alternate count. There could be an expanded flat a,b,c correction where the b wave rises higher than the prior peak and the c declines lower than a. Regardless, the destination changes not.
Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #1
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #2
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #3
Laddering and Buy/Sell Setups.
Laddering Example with EOS
Tutorial on the use of Fibonacci & Elliott Waves
These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended
@haejin's Trading Nuggets
Essay: Is Technical Analysis a Quantum Event?
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Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**
Maybe we will see a new high of the end of this year ;)
Watch for sharp decline of BTC through the end of the year once CME futures go live next week and market markets start shorting en masse.
BE CAREFUL SHORTING BTC 🤓
Yeah.....As Haejin says....and I have proven to be the dummy going against it several times......NEVER SHORT A BULL MARKET!!!
These futures are cash settled so shorting a futures contract does not actually result in the sale of a Bitcoin.
Thank you for continually pointing this out.....I'm being serious....thank you!
Nice work thanks! Also serious!!
That's not the point though. Almost all futures traded are settled in cash. I've been trading futures for a living for the last 10 years, I've never taken delivery of barrels of oil, or cotton, or gold.
The point is that a legitimate futures market will allow major investors that aren't Bitcoin superfans, like most people buying bitcoins since its inception, a mechanism to short and drive the price of the Bitcoin futures contract down.
The a large dip in the future contract price will cause trader on the open market to slow down their buying of bitcoin, pause, or sell off to an alterative investment, this is where the rise of other coins will come in.
If they short......they will lose. They know better than to short a bull market. Not to mention it doesn't matter. Unless the price progression changes sometime soon, the projection stays pretty much the same despite ANY news or events. At this point, it looks like they will get in just in time for the dip shown above. People will freak out about the futures and blame them....but it's just a healthy correction, then we're back off and running. This train ain't slowing down anytime soon the way it looks now.
/xbt[f8]
Current bitcoin future contract.
$35,000 profit per contract so far if you would have shorted at the beginning of the contract.
https://imgur.com/3Dnob8Z.jpg
This is true, however the primary difference is that the price of the commodities that you listed are decided by the price in the futures market. Whereas, the price of Bitcoin in the futures market is based on the real price of Bitcoin on the exchanges.
Certainly a possibility. There will be some sort of impact. I'm really just trying to point out that it's not a 1-1 relationship...
They are not permitted to short at this stage with Futures - also you need to understand the CASH settled futures markets and the margin requirements involved.
That doesn't even make sense! Of course you will be able to buy AND sell.
Anyways I just talked to a high level broker at TD/Thinkorswim who said everything should be operating as normal when the system goes live.
I think we shall wait for a few, if double top will form we are in beginning of correction.
Check my analysis. I will be glad to hear your opinion.
Your Alt Coin estimation makes perfect sense.....which is why all those lagging pairs can launch off. I have long expected this to happen, but this may be the time around that it happens. It would then fulfill all the needs of the forecasts!
Excellent work as always!
Super Bitcoin 48 blocks away.
498888
http://supersmartbitcoin.com/
Thanks @solisrex .......I've been meaning to post this all night, but I'm busy trying to move my own funds around.....I am so sick of some of these exchanges turn around time.
27 BLOCKS TO GO!
Me too gets Annoying! Price we paid as Trail Blazers
Another one...are you kidding me??? At least this time I have a little BTC but it's still on various exchanges so probably won't be credited.
How long before btc is at ~$70K? B'cause with ETH going to $10k and ETH also going to 0.15 btc... this puts btc around $70k.. How fast could it get there .. in a healthy way of course.
Update follow-up.. wow if I project out to the end of Aug 2018 both prices nail it for possibility.
Any chance USD projection shows anything?
Tomorrow!
Sometimes you would think that right!!
I joined Steem just so I could give haejin some up votes. Nice work haejin, I appreciate your effort!
Me too! Hejin is great..
Thank you so much for caring enough to join and upvote! If you are part of the discussion in the future, I will try to upvote you to help your account gain value! Thanks again, it makes a big difference!
thx so much! guys come on lets upvote! or do you want him to stop? ;O)
Thanks @stephaniewin - That's exactly it! Haejin is EXTREMELY busy, we've got to keep him upvoted and visible!
Haejin would you have a few Alts you'd particularly recommend during this bitcoin correction, or should we just consider your previous 'XYZ is about to pop!' posts?
Thanks again. Trying to upvote everything you've posted.
Your generosity does not go unappreciated!
I can't speak for @haejin but I'm sure he would recommend bitshares.
Please read back for your own benefit of making your own decisions, and use his analysis to augment your own work and research. Looking back, you will see many coins with a whole lot of potential, but nothing is guaranteed tomorrow, or the next day, or the next. His projections are reaching toward the 95 percentile.....so for the most part yes, the recent posts are very telling as to what is a good buy, but patience is always key in this market, and PLEASE watch ALL the tutorials before applying the technique, and so you further understand why you are buying what you are buying. Thank You for supporting the blog! Upvoted you! Keep coming back!
This is my first comment on Steemit. Thank you Haejin is for sharing your knowledge to us.
Could you please update Civic, Cup & Handle Fractals?