Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: A Third Alternate Count
SUMMARY
Change is the only Universal Constant. I had described not too long ago about a very famous Guru who fell into the trap of analysis myopia by calling for Dow 400 crash from March of 2009 to 2014 while the market just roasted all his permabear calls. It wasn't pretty as he was simply unwilling to change his views with the change in market trend. This was a severely important lesson for me just by observing this man's slow train crash for almost five years straight!
To that end, IF my primary count and direction becomes less so compared to an alternate, I change my analysis, without reservations! This has saved my bacon countless number of times. It doesn't mean to become wishy washy without a spine; but rather, be on guard from falling into the myopia trap.
Bitcoin (BTC) overnight action has about returned price to the bottom support line of the triangle. As discussed yesterday on the triangle a,b,c,d,e and the bear flag potentials; I'm adding a third for a zig zag (5,3,5) type of correction. This correction couples the bear flag pattern but can act ahead of the E wave. The E wave had been discussed as the last wave for the bear flag.
The below chart shows the didactic draw out of the zig zag correction as red waev A haveing five subwaves; B having three subwaves and C having five subwaves. These subwaves are then labeled onto the price chart. IF the lower lin of the triangle support is breached and $11,600 is reached; then this Zig Zag could be in effect. The bottom triangle line has held as support well so far, but each time it is hit, it weakens. It's currently being hit for the fourth time. Price action today could show whether it holds as is expected. Now, a bull wick is potential in that price briefly pierces the lower line causing many to panic sell and soon afterwards, price returns right back inside the triangle. Such is the way the market gets rid of the weak hands quickly prior to resuming the original up trend. A Bull Wick would be welcome!
I've drawn horizontal lines for additional landing zones for the bottom of red C wave. These had also be used during the June/July and the early Fall corrections.
The key here is to not panic but perceive it from the stance of confidence and awareness. You are now aware of this scenario and that should not induce fear but rather keep the panic away. IF this scenario takes place, having cash at hand is always ideal! In my blog post that discussed a model portolio, it was suggested that 10% to 15% of a portfolio should be in the form of cash which could be deployed at such bargain basement prices following an a,b,c correction. Why? The best time to buy is at the terminal end of an a,b,c correction!
Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #1
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #2
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #3
Laddering and Buy/Sell Setups.
Laddering Example with EOS
Tutorial on the use of Fibonacci & Elliott Waves
These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended
@haejin's Trading Nuggets
Essay: Is Technical Analysis a Quantum Event?
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Legal Disclaimer: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.
Nice analysis! Can you please make ASAP a EOS chart analysis? Thanks in advance!
come on dude. after that growth... CORRECTION!
It's finishing the first wave (A) of the correction.
P.S. only my opinion
Of course.
Time it gets on with it - or it will take forever
Bitcoin will retest 20 k before 30 March 2018
Why bother what it's doing in March. If I want to know something I want to know it NOW. What is BTC doing NOW. Cause that's where the money is.........or is been taking out of your pocket.
I also disagree with having 10 -15% cash. That should be much more in this bearish market. And why take the risk of following 15 different coins? I just stick to 4 or 5 with ETH and BTC.
If interested I posted the same chart under First Blood so you can see my lines already were correct. Ever hour a candle finishes relay your line. I keep telling you: "This is easy, Bitcoin is telling you his story EVERY HOUR.
I really enjoy your comments and analysis. You bring a great counterpoint to Haejin's already-excellent TA.
is this your chart?
why Sir david?
The only thing EOS needs is time and affordable financing. EOS coin is a little wavy, so I can not imagine what its price will be in the near future. While writing this article, there is an EOS price of $ 10, a market value of almost $ 6 billion, and a $ 24 million hourly volume of $ 600 million. @liondani
Not enough volume, that's why. Lots of the little chickens have gotten scared these last two weeks and are now warily watching from afar, while everybody tells them it will soon go straight up (not just EOS), but the volume is lacking, so it clearly doesn't. That scares them some more, and so the circle closes and the market remains choppy.
Not a time to buy yet, even the chickens know that.
Even experienced traders know and are now sitting on their hands in fiat.
Becoz, what Haejin says means :
IF 11.600 gets hit once again, BTC might finally REALLY go down to 9500 or 8000, and that may either mean alts will bloom or that the scare will infect them, at least for a day or two...
Everything's down at the moment except Bitcoin Gold and ETH Classic, and a few small pumps. I'm waiting for a general uptrend to begin, and that means it must begin with Bitcoin. Most altcoin breakouts these last days got interrupted and didn't play out, no follow-up. Why would I bother. Yawn.
February maybe, but lets keep posting a lot about this and that, maybe we can talk it up ;)
@jojof, I chicken out and am the upmost afraid person you'll ever meet. But at least when I chicken out and jump back in again.....................my chicken gives me some GOLDEN EGGS. Please remember to reposition you lines every single hour. BTC and ETH are telling you their story every hour. I don't want to know what's doing in March - April or December. I want to know what it's doing RIGHT NOW!
Yes-yes, this is okay for day trading, but most people here want to buy a coin and then see it shoot up and triplicate their funds.
And then, the next.
But they also want to lower their risk and therefore spread money over several coins, as if that made any logical sense - oh I guess it's either obvious, or hard to explain.
So they want high risk coins that don't ever tank, ideally, either that or nothing, and so Haejin is spending his energy telling them which coins will likely do their bidding sooner rather than later.
He tends to be optimistic, but then he thinks in long time intervals...
it's therapy, keeping the spirits high, an that;s okay as it actually DOES stabilize the market. Self-fulfilling prophecy.
We have a guy on these threads who always writes about "Massive Prophets," no idea if he's being sarcastic - but we sure have them here ;)
If you just day-trade, you can forget about all that and simply do your thang every day... I'm inclined to agree.
Once we have some stability, I'll get into that again, I wish BTC would tank real hard and be done with it NOW instead of doing these gay ups and downs...
Basically, when day trading it doesn't matter, you win two out of three and that means you constantly profit.
I just like it better when there's a general upward trend, so I don't have to place lots of stops or go into fiat overnight. I'm paranoid ;)
Thanks for the summary. What is your approach to these market cycles? Is the only reason these cryptos go up every year in their "market cycles" that the entire space is going up in marketcap right?
Compared to stock market, this is a new emerging asset class and every year it seems since 14' it's been gaining more and more speculative traders. So these charts behaving the way they do make sense, every year getting more and more extreme.
Any thoughts on the space and why these charts play out so high every year?
Yes, in essence the market cap dpes it, but theres also a certain amount of crystallized hystery going in, the FOMO of the masses - or in other words, market cap + speed = enhanced value. The enhancement being subject to inflation, rates eventually start to fall once the momentum wears off.
This is why the Dimons of this world are having serious doubts, as there are no producers behind crypto the way the see it - like there's (metal) miners actively destroying the environment, using up as much energy as Ireland, to extract the ore and steel workers turning it into the stuff others make useless gadgets from that eventually end up in a landfill.
They lack the flexibility of mind to ask themselves why Disney is a successful enterprise by creating dreams, only because that question never arose since they were born.
Disney was already there, it worked, like the FED and Allah, and so these things as well as Disney were legit. Sigh.
However they do understand landfills and appreciate the intrinsic value of landfills... so do I, as they well illustrate the human economic circle and how it really works.
Please explain what you mean by "space" - in my thoughts, the real issue seems to be time, or call it psychotime ;)
EOS has very big potential to grow ! So since today its 15% down i would even buy some :)
But you could say that for almost any coin at this time.
Literally any.
Not all coins have potential. Many are just clones!
No-no - I mean the top ones, not the junk. The ones with potential should all go up, but people are scared and weary at the moment, morale needs to come back.
Picking Up :)
I'm strongly considering exiting BTC once and for all. Perhaps this is as high as it's ever going to get.
100% guarantee that is not true...But feel free to expose your weak hands.
I've always wondered what your thoughts were on the Robert Prechters horrible call during the biggest bull run ever. He most certainly is a brilliant man, but yes he got tunnel vision. He actually cost me a ton of money because of that. It was a big learning lesson for me as well...and I've always been torn because I continue to believe in the elliott wave patterns. This was nice to see you recognize this and always be thinking about alternatives. I appreciate your TA @haejin.. I've been with you since pretty much day 1.
Wow, could go down to 11K, if so, weakness begets more weakness
Time to invest ☝💸
Bitcoin is on sale 😀 People are happy when a 50-inch television is on sale. Be happy when BTC is at a discount price
haha thats a good one :D and also very true ! Use the time to buy when its on discount because soon it will be double :))
Thanks for the awareness, but sadly the average investor is going to panick. The next step is really going to weed out the amatuers and the pros.
Agreed
Pros don't sit on their hands, believe me. Pros also sell when a coin free-falls, to catch it at a lower rate. You can call that a panic sell of course, no problem. The panic seller who sells at 12500 and gets back in at 11400 is better off than the hodler who waited it out and missed that little deal, no matter if the coin in question rebounds a day later or half a year later. Thing is, he has to get back in and not sit and watch wide-eyed from afar.
Good point. I try to have cash on hand so I don't have to sell my coin to catch a bargain. But I see your point that you can profit more by selling your hoard during a free fall.
I usually have 30-60% of my funds in cash, preferably in Euros (dollar isn't programmed to rise, ask the FED).
Frequent ins and outs are better than relying on a coin to do what one expects, but it's f course also more of a job ;)
But why would someone ride out a dip of days or weeks if they can make a deal of it ? To be able to say "I'm not a weak hand, I'm a hodler ?" I'm not sure if such people exist, there will be many who are simply indecisive and therefore prefer to ride it out, which is understandable if you're unprepared.
I normally just buy every level of the free fall when it comes to my lovely btc
Good. So if you adapt to this being choppy sideways market on the whole and stop dreaming of 20k for awhile, you can keep earning a lot of money day trading. Just be alert, to jump out an in again in case of a major drop.
Learn from the victors, act like an algo ;)
The big question is will the alt coins also take a hit...
I don't think we'll see a "6 months of drought" scenario... these scenarios have happened to bitcoin in the past, but there's so many people getting into crypto...
plus, instititutions.
It just doesn't rhyme.
But with the lack of faith right now, it's still possible that we get another reaal dip, w came from 19k down to 11k, that was $8000 - form 14k to 8k would only be 6.000, nit that bad. But of course most alts would initially suffer...
In the end, Haejin is right. It's a healthy correction, at least for Bitcoin. If everybody just stayed calm, it wouldn't be a problem and when it's over, we would be rising again.
However people are anything but calm, and there's quite a few, likely less here but elsewhere, who came into crypto on advice like "buy this, it's hot!"
Binance registers 240k new people in one hour, others 100k a day, that's still crazy...
So things are a bit more complicated than usual.
I think many of these folks are still transferring funds and waiting to make a decision...
Cool. Thanks for your extensive explanation. I just got started not long ago, not knowing much but i jumped in it to learn as I go, since no theory is worth much without experience.
I'm not the panicky type and I believe in the future of crypto because of the value they bring. But for me I think it was a mistake to jump in on random coins posted by haejin predictions and now being bit skeptical of it because of all the red numbers.
I believe for me a much better choice from now on will be matching fundamentals with TA, just for the ease of mind and confidence that I would have when the market looks shaken.
Being flexible and able to change view accordingly is another important aspect of TA, I believe. Thanks for your teaching.
Good post, as usual, thanks @Haejin!
@Haejin: This Alternative looks like the one I posted two days ago:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@vonbuelo/bitcoin-btc-elliot-waves-bull-cycle
https://steemit.com/btc/@vonbuelo/comparing-btc-sell-offs-and-what-to-expect-now
I don't think this is how it will go.
You think we'll be in an eight month bear market ?
I think in 7 to 10 days it will pick up again.
I sure hopes so... sounds likely too, but that's exactly what I was thinking 7 or 10 days ago.
Starting the 21st people will get there fiat money and invest again in the 1 coin they know the best: bitcoin.
Okay, but why on the 21st, I see the 15th and the 31st as more likely ?
We get paid on the 21st in Europe.
People needed the fiat for presents and sales. Nobody has fiat now.
A lot of people made an account in order to buy cripto.