Bitcoin Currently Sits at Its Lower Bound of Its Long Term Trend Which Should Likely Hold...

in #bitcoin • 5 years ago (edited)

For BTC to stay above its long term trend means closing above 7k. It usually has not breached that trend once recovered in its 4 yearly cycle. The effect of supply on its value shows up including the halving that occurs every 4 years.

bitcoin_supply_350.png

However, it's current true Metcalfe law value is below 3k. A breach of that trend line is unlikely but if it does should bring it closer to its true metcalfe law value below 3k. Its Metcalfe law model was described here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1567422317300480

Its true value is currently so low because it is not finding increased usage at a sustainable growth rate that should match its long term trend. This is reflected in its low unique address trend. Its number of unique address is shown here: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-unique-addresses.

#ethereum #cryptocurrency #markets
5 years ago in #bitcoin by
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     5 years ago (edited)

    Market manipulators might flash drop it to fish for leveraged positions on exchanges but it would be hard to close it below that trend line. If it does, it would mean a break of the trend that hasn't happened in over 8 years. This is not impossible and the sample size of data is not large. If it happens it would signal a repudiation of the asset in a seriously fundamental way.