I agree with most of your points, but I am concerned about this one:

"5. Segwit 2X:
It seems likely that Segwit 2X will now pass. This won't solve the scaling issues forever but will help."

I just wrote an article on why, which I'll link below (apologies for the self-promotion), but to paraphrase, SegWit2x will not do much to help scaling or fees compared to even a modest block size increase (which Satoshi expressly suggested), it may be difficult or impossible to remove later, and the real intent of it is to "create off-chain transactions" which literally violate the Bitcoin white paper.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lexiconical/seg-wit-is-a-trojan-horse-bitcoin-scaling-debate-explained

Here's some r/btc threads relevant on scaling:

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6l7ax9/censored_twice_on_rbitcoin_in_2016_the_existing/

This thread notes skepticism we'll even see the 2x part, which I share to some degree:

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6lcmia/so_is_the_2x_part_of_segwit_2x_going_to_happen/