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RE: I've been seeing this chart get thrown around a lot lately. Given the market's history, which of these scenarios is more likely?
Neither, @suprepachyderm. The environment, conditions, times… everything is different and incomparable.
The second scenario is constructed on a pure graph similarity, while everything else is different. Dotcom bubble time frame graph goes more than four years wide, and bitcoin (which is not a bubble) just goes a few months.
You are seeing a repeating pattern — two steps forward, one backward. Bitcoin will grow that way as long as fiat toilet currencies exist and as long it's value is denominated in dollar scam. After the fiat era there will be a correction, but compared to precious metals and other cryptocurrencies.
Agreed. I do find it worth noting that bitcoin is traded 24/7 globally and the dotcom bubble occurred under regular market conditions. The amount of time it takes for markets to play out in btc could be up to 4x faster. Not sure if that works out mathematically with the charts though. Would be interesting to try and calculate.