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RE: Math-Based Fundamental Value Analysis Has Been Right About Bitcoin Bear Trend So Far - What Does it Tell Us About When Sustained Growth Will Return?
Great post and very useful information. I like your approach of looking further into the new account creation chart. But somehow that information could also be misleading because it doesn't says anything about the quality that each account brings with. Lets say how many transaction is this new account going to create and how many bitcoins it will hold? Do you think it would be better to look at the overall transaction per day or maybe transaction volume per day? Follow Up&Re
The overall "matrix" that we use for valuation considers those other factors as well. But over time we have seen that the DUA on its own well alone even before adding those other metrices. You know why? Because when you randomly have 300,000+ people joining a network daily the quality ratio begins to kind of also average out with the deviation in q.r reducing as the numbers grow. What this means is that all the bum accounts wont just collaborate to say enter on Monday and the high quality addresses enter on Tuesday. You start getting close averages in quality entering with each day's batch.
You will find in the archives of this blog, charts that have also introduced and used some of those other metrices.