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RE: The r0ach report 31: Of the numerous lies people make up to try and pump bitcoin, this is the worst
how do you think or your prediction about bitcoin price in 2018 whether it will be increasing or going down.
I just want to survey some people's opinions
The price is determined by a small amount of float, so the more centralized a coin is, the more incentive there is for the party who monopolizes it to manipulate that float (like Chinese miners or Winklevoss or whoever). So the price is mainly determined by the manipulator playing a game of chicken and seeing how high he can artificially raise an asset while still attracting buyers and preventing everyone else from dumping on him.
This is why things like TA aren't reliable, because the vast majority of markets are not aggregate markets. Whether it goes up or down is almost entirely determined by how greedy the TINY TINY amount of entities who control the price are. The price was controlled by a single entity on Bitfinex almost the entire time from $200 to $3000 (probably still is with Tether scam). China numbers were entirely fabricated and Huobi would not move higher if Finex wouldn't budge.
In other words, Asians (or someone trading in Asia) were trying to fabricate an imaginary high price in order to try and get westerners to buy their high priced coins. As for what happens now, anything can happen. If someone puts in a huge short, someone like the Winklevoss will just send their coins to the exchange, use those coins as collateral, then squeeze them.
You can't predict price for this imaginary market. Half of it is based on fraud, the other half is just squeezing longs or shorts, so you'd need to constantly monitor leverage. Shorts are generally always squeezed because of whales who are sitting on 200,000 coins (illiquid asset) so anyone who shorts they just get to squeeze them for free money. Never short a fraudulent, illiquid asset in other words.