Bitcoin Bubble Comparison
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about the indicators I use below and click here from my comprehensive trading strategy. Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Have amended my projections to: < $6,000 by October 4th and $2,860 by October 31st for the bottom.
1: Low establishes support for descending triangle.
2: Second test of support may or may not be a fakeout lower low
3: Third test of support follows second lower high. A fakeout lower low is likely.
4: Fourth test of support follows third lower high
5: High of final bounce creates downtrend. A breakdown of the descending triangle is expected to follow.
6: Breakdown of a major horizontal support
7: Capitulation follows breakdown of support.
8: High low establishes support for consolidation
9: Turns prior support into resistance
10: U shaped bottom follow capitulation makes appears of adam & eve double bottom / cup & handle
11: Groundhog bounce. There will be much exuberance and euphoria as it appears resistance will break for an early spring. Resistance retest confirms painful consolidation will be extended, much like when a groundhog sees his shadow.
12: Tell your friends, tell your kids, tell your wife: "BUY BITCOIN!" Third test of support represents best chance to build a long term position.
13: Higher high provides crucial signal of strength
14: Prior resistance becomes support and provides further confirmation. If you told everyone you know to 'Buy Bitcoin' at point 12 then some will listen now
15: Third higher high provides further confirmation
16: Fear and doubt start to spread on Twitter and Reddit after horizontal and trend support break down. The ones buying point 5 (last couple weeks) will be saying: "I told you this was a dead cat bounce!"
17: Final consolidation before breakout. BB's tighten and there are still plenty of bears calling a top. Set stop order above resistance and/or buy support.
18: Bear market is officially over!!!
Thanks for reading!
Allow me to Reintroduce Myself...
Learn How to Trade! [part 1]
Learn How to Trade! [part 2]
Wyckoff Distribution
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 189)
Great post. Not sure it’ll play out that way, but you make a sound argument.
For the record: I admire your effort, but I completely disagree with your selection of comparison points between the two markets. I did something similar back here: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/btc-long-term-pattern-repetition . My own interpretation may include an error (the point "E" on my charts might be premature, making my predicition 1.5 months ahead of schedule), but either way I believe that we are running a much shorter and more compressed cycle than what you interpret. I would estimate that your lower timeline is stretched out about three times longer that what I think it should be.
I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that by the end of the year I'm going to say "I told you so". 😜
If only crypto was easy to read!
Thanks for your input. I looked at your chart and it doesn't appear to take into account capitulation / creating a new low below $5,750. I think that there is < 10% chance that area of support will continue to hold after a fourth lower high was established. If we do breakdown that support then it will become very strong resistance. If that happens then I think there is < 1% chance that we make it out of this bear market by the end of the year.
If that happens I will not say "I told you so" because rubbing salt in someone's wounds is despicable behavior and it brings me no joy. Furthermore I am an adult and I have better things to do with my time. Cheers!
Ah sawcruhteez, I didn't mean to be nasty in any way! Have a brotherly high 5 🙏