Bitcoin Daily Update (day 191)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about the indicators I use below and click here from my comprehensive trading strategy. Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

I did another in depth bubble comparison yesterday and have amended my short term projections. Click here to read that analysis.

1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30

Previous analysis / position: “$6,789 and $6,343 are my key areas of support...If you are not in position then now is not the time to chase! Wait for a bounce and then be ready to short...If you did enter in the last few days then now is the time to adjust stop losses to breakeven.” / Closed ETH:BTC short at +77% with intention to re enter if we bounce. Still short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH.
Patterns: Weekly tweezer top. Descending triangle.
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,476 - $6,500 | S: $6,268 - $6,347
BTCUSDSHORTS: Approaching ATH levels.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0815%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -6.79% | 26 = -6.14% | Very surprised that they have yet to make a bearish crossover.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -8.53% | 128 = -11.05%
Volume: Big volume spike yesterday provided confirmation that the sell off was not a trap. Very surprised by the volume today. Currently 2X average and still more than 6 hours left!
FIB’s: 0.886 at $6,262 predicted current bounce.
Candlestick analysis: Bearish engulfing weekly candle has started every sell off in this bear market. Provides great confirmation for the bears. Weekly tweezers have also been very reliable/powerful.
Ichimoku Cloud: “Best entries occur when everything flips at once” Looks like this is getting ready to happen on 4h. Incoming TK’s cross + likely bearish kumo flip + just started trading below the cloud.
TD Sequential: 4h chart is currently on a green 1 that was a red 9. Interested to see if we bounce. Daily provided entry with R2 < R1.
Visible Range: Short term gap from $6,480 - $6,880 has been filled. A bounce back to $6,880 to test for resistance seems likely.
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +0.31% | 24h = -7.97% | 1w = -7.89% | 2w = -3.90% | 1m = -1.36%
Bollinger Bands: Almost touched bottom band on yesterday’s selloff. Expect MA at $6,787 to become strong resistance.
Trendline: Connect July 26th to September 4th.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Down at $6,231 represents key area of support.
On Balance Volume: Moving down w price
ADX: -DI crossed above +DI as expected and they are quickly diverging. ADX crossing 20 indicates that the range should be over and we should be ready to trend again.
Chaikin Money Flow: Moving down with price.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.69 | D = 45.02 | Pulling back below 50 provides further confirmation for bears. Expecting a return to 30 before thisj bear market is over.
Stoch: Pulling back sharply on daily. Made a bearish crossover on 3d.

Summary: There is plenty of confirmation that indicates yesterday’s selloff was only the start. Specifically I am referring to the: Bollinger Bands, RSI, ADX, VRVP, weekly bearish engulfing / tweezer top.

The only two factors pointing to the contrary are: btcusdshorts nearing ATH and the funding rates being very expensive for short sellers. This tells me that we could see a sharp spike to $6,800 - $7,00 before continuing the sell off. If this happens it will provide a tremendous selling opportunity.

If you are not in a position then be prepared for that outcome. If you are in a position then taking some off the table with the intention to re open if we bounce makes a lot of sense.

There is also the possibility that short sellers blow through the all time high levels and go on a bit of a parabolic run themselves. This seems more likely than usual due to how fast they have risen over the last few days. That tells me the positions are being held by a small number of traders. I get concerned when everyone and their UBER driver’s are opening short positions and that doesn’t appear to be the case this time around.

Thanks for reading!

Allow me to Reintroduce Myself...
Learn How to Trade! [part 1]
Learn How to Trade! [part 2]
Wyckoff Distribution
Bitcoin Bubble Comparison
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 190)