Bitcoin Charts for May 2022

Using the bollinger band set to volume we're able to see more clearly how the market is tracking on a macro level. Clearly we're nearing the end of a short term (6 month) squeeze. There is a long term channel with support at the bottom, roughly 33k, giving a case for bulls. However it's more likely we'll see an infamous Bitcoin dip (-50%) this month if volume were to drop dramatically as it did last time we squeezed like this (signal for sell-off finish). A dip here would be the next buy opportunity for value investors.

BTC value investors have seen time and time again that bull cycles leading up to BTC halvening events begin with a -50% dip and result in a 2000% gain over 2 - 3 years with cycle top being found short term post halvening event. It is wise to keep in mind that lengthening cycles could dictate the likelihood of repeating momentum we've seen in the past being that lengthening cycles suggests diminishing gains with time.

Also, with prices still tightly correlating with US markets we should stay vigilant when traditional finance hints at regulatory changes. It would be ideal, to me, to see a reversal over a weekend when wall street is closed, followed by a rally the following week. This would swing Bitcoins relative strength and signal a break away from US markets.

In summary don't be surprised if we see a good old fashioned dump this month, being that we've broken a bear flag on the daily and are retesting the bottom of it currently, heading lower in the immediate short-term; 36.6k, 34.5k, 33k. Watch for a flat series of candles on Daily charts over next week or two for that stagnation that precedes the dip, remembering how important volume will be in identifying this signal.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, just your friendly neighborhood Sensei.

Sayonara!