As a non-trader but a long term investor i think it is just better to buy the coins from the projects where you believe in, store them safe, and don't think about them to much anymore :-) if their are some events that will make the price drop, i just see it as an good opportunity to buy some more... offcourse you can try to sell before these events, and buy more when price drops but thats a decision you have to make... i prefer just to store them and don't look at it to much instead of sell, exchange it for $/€ again and later on buy some more with the risk that the event did not cause the effect you thought it would be and you have to pay more to have the same amount of BTC again...