The Great Underestimation

The fallout from the spring thaw of bitcoin sell offs and subsequent alt sell offs has been greatly underestimated by the crypto community. We’ve been bombarded with what many would term “bullish” news as of late, and yet for whatever reason the masses haven’t taken the bait. So what gives? Why aren’t we sustaining at a much higher price level these days?

Bitcoin Google Trends

First off, the human race as a whole is not very intelligent. I’m not saying individuals aren’t, but our species as a whole is very susceptible to hive-mind mentality. We’re always latching on to trends and the new flashy things, without really understanding why. This happened at an unprecedented level last fall. A crypto hysteria swept over the nation, and your butchers, bakers and candlestick makers were all lining out the door to get their hands or should I say computers on these intangible shiny digital currencies.

Well great right? That’s what I initially thought. This is what traders and investors such as myself (in the game since 2016) have been waiting for. Mainstream adoption, everyone and their mother wants to own and use crytpos. We’re finally going to achieve that P2P decentralized utopia that all the crypto influencers have been preaching for the last half decade. What could possibly go wrong?

A lot actually. Again, the human race is not the most intelligent species, and the bitcoin boom last fall is evidence of that. When the big sell offs started to happen, many everyday folks, who aren’t crypto savvy didn’t really know what to do. Should I sell for a loss even though people are saying 1 bitcoin will be worth 1 million dollars someday? "Maybe I’ll just wait another week and see if things turn around…" Next week comes and bitcoin is down another 20 percent. "Fuck this thing is falling off a cliff, I need to get out now and salvage what little value I have left."

This is a generalized scenario of what happened to countless people across the world, and at present, we’re witnessing the long lasting effects. We’re in a crypto winter right now, because bitcoin and other various crypto investments, have lost their trust in the eyes of the public. There’s been a lot of great news lately in the world of bitcoin, individual stories that by themselves would’ve drove the price of bitcoin up by 20 percent last year. But what’s missing is people who give a shit. The masses have cut their losses and moved on to the next shiny thing. So what’s the future hold?

I for one, don’t know if we’ll ever see a bull run like last fall. The masses have learned from their mistakes, and I really can’t foresee so much stupid “buy-high” money coming in anytime soon. The main thing in my mind that could create that type of FOMO we saw last year, is if a major government collapses. If say the U.S. or Korea or Germany etc has an economic meltdown, I could see a huge amount of individuals exchanging their fiat for cryptos, and this could spark a parabolic bull run. Many crypto enthusiasts believe this isn’t a matter of if, but when. As far as institutional involvement, I mean sure that’s great, but if there is very little demand by individuals, I’m not sure how high they can drive the price. Maybe 10-15k?

Bitcoin Trade Volume

Curious as to what others think? I’m still very bullish long term, but I’m talking years not months. I think we’ll all get a much better idea of the immediate future, when we see the effects of the big corporations and institutions moving into the crypto space. As always, thanks for listening, and stay positive!