Bitcoin Elliott Wave Update - Where will this correction end?
Since it looks like we're entering the final movements on intermediate wave (2), I wanted to take a look and see where we might expect this wave to terminate so we can prepare for intermediate wave (3).
Typically the second wave is a deeper retracement so I'm looking for a 61.8% pullback from the orthodox top of wave (1). That would take us to roughly $2846. This level was resistance for the market in June and July. It also appears that the 233 day EMA (red line) will likely meet prices near that level as well adding further support to this case.
Looking at EW extensions of subminuette wave iii (based on estimates of where iv will end), if wave v were to equal wave iii, that would take it to $3168. If wave v were to equal wave i, that would take it to $3367 which would be 61.8% of wave iii. In both of these cases, wave v would be truncated as it wouldn't reach the end of minuette wave (iii).
Given that neither wave i nor wave iii extended, I have a hunch that we may see an extension in wave v which could take us down to the $2846 level. That type of sharp move to the downside would seem to be a fitting ending to this correction.
In any event, we'll just have to watch and see what plays out. Stay tuned for updates!
If you have any thoughts or questions about this wave count or elliott wave in general, please post them in the comments.
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Didn't we reach a similar level before BTC bounced back to current levels. Is this the same thing all over again? What are the chances of BTC going lower than $2846?
Thanks for your hard work!
Based on the current count, measured moves, strength of the bounce off $3000 a few weeks ago and the strength of the rallies before the correction started, I'm not anticipating a move below $2846, but anything is possible.
My preferred wave count would not be invalidated unless we broke below $1830. That said, I'm not anticipating that we'll get close to that.
Try to think of Elliott Wave as less of scripture and more of a constantly updating projection of where prices are heading. As prices move through time we build a wave count. As our preferred count no longer matches reality, we update it to reflect what is actually happening. Our preferred count then allows us to anticipate future movements. Sometimes those anticipated movements will match reality and we'll make huge profits. Other times our count will be invalidated, we'll take a small loss, update our count and anticipate new movements based on our updated count/roadmap.
Thanks for your input.
@stocks29 your last paragraph is the most succinct description of Elliot Wave analysis that I've read. Great stuff, thanks a million.
My pleasure!