RE: Bitcoin Dives! Why I Remain Bullish + Tron Rant
Great video! I completely agree with you and already started to shift liquidity into BTC and some very selected altcoins. The reason is the correlation of BTC to the whole cryptomarket and the channel of exiting alts through BTC.
When thinking about what can happen there are some scenarios:
The whole cryptoworld sees a huge correction: People are fleeing their alts (because at the end 90% of coin holder actually are in for the money and believe those are shitcoins anyway) into BTC. BTC will tank but alts will bleed like crazy.
Strategy: Be in BTC and fiat.BTC as Big Daddy wakes up (maybe due to a catalyst such as a big financial instrument (such as ETF) and will go crazy. Altcoins will bleed (at least in BTC-value). Its similar to the month of Octobre 2017.
Strategy: Be in BTC.Bitcoin will stay in a limited interval but not crash or pump. Altcoins will continue to outperform BTC.
Strategy: Be in altcoins.
That is what is happening since December. However, regarding some ridiculous market caps of complete shitcoins, I suspect that the bubble pops very soon. It will be either through scenario 1 or 2.
In order to position yourself well for the upcoming time you should form an expectancy about the probabilities of the different scenarios. And in that sense scenario 1 + 2 heavily outweigh scenario 3.
Therefore I decided to slowly use some pumps on various alts to shift most most of the funds into BTC (and LTC*) to be positioned for scenario 2 and some funds into Fiat to be prepared for scenario 1. However, I will leave some little exposure to various altcoins I believe in.
It is refreshing to find an individual who has the same opinion about the current market.
*Why LTC? Because LTC correlates with BTC (corr=0.93 in 2017) while actually outperforming it. Also I believe that catalyst such as Lightning will first happen on LTC. However, most funds will still be in BTC.
Thank you for your thoughts salty, best of luck with your investing! No need to respond if you didn't calculate yourself, but for the correlation between BTC & LTC in 2017, what is the frequency you used for the returns (e.g: Daily, Weekly)?
I used daily correlations
If I remember correctly @criptovestor already mentioned the 1st scenario some time ago in fall 2017. But the time is indefinite. Some speculators are saying that it's gonna happen around June 2018, on the basis of the altcoin roadmaps, which a lot of them have deadlines a little before than, if I understood correctly.
And may I ask did you do any calculation of probability on either scenarios? If yes is that how you redesigned your portfolio?
And on an completely different note: I also like Crypto Investors videos a lot, but sometimes I'm just feeling this because of the psychology of people, which is basically: We like (and trust!) people with like opinions.