BTC bullish or bearish
It is Wednesday m'dudes.
My take-profit hit overnight so I'm a happy camper. Yesterday I mentioned that I would set a limit sell around the 618 fib at 8500 and that hit almost dead on. Depending on the exchange, the overnight high hit somewhere between 5485 and 5510.
A tale of two animals.
I'm sticking to my guns. My tale is one of the (cautious) bear: I think this is a bull trap and I don't think we're going higher right now. A quick jaunt through crypto twitter this morning would indicate that I'm holding up the short end of the vote, but I still think there needs to be more blood for the Lord God of Bitcoin before we are rewarded with a bull run. So far the similarities between the '13 cycle and this one are startling and as I've outlined in my previous articles, I believe we're due for the final plunge now that price was rejected at the 618 fib resistance level. There are a number of technical levels that could act as the lowest level of resistance prior to the next bull run: 786 fib support around 5600, 4500-4800 zone of support, and finally the 3500 area. If the fractal repeats, the 3500 area will be the reversal point for this bear trend. However, as more money comes in and the market increases in complexity, the bottom could come at one of these higher levels.
Alternatively, we could have just broken out of the multi-month falling wedge pattern for good. Price could return to the trend line and bounce, rising to the 10k zone briefly pausing for a moment of truth, and then proceed to blastoff to the mewn. I just don't think that's the case.
We'll see how price action plays the remainder of the week and into the weekend, but the beginning of August will likely tell the tale of either bulls regaining control or bears driving the next wave downward.
I hate posting low time frame charts because it reveals me as the degen that I truly am. But all I'm watching is the 15-minute chart to see which direction we're headed and making sure I don't get blasted on this open short I have. So here it is. The swing high occurred around 18 hours ago and the price is now in a falling wedge pattern with the 200 moving average acting as support. I suspect the area between 7700 and the 200ma are riddled with stop losses and if we break down below support the elevator is heading down.
Ultimately I'm on team crypto so I want to see a rebound in price and am fully willing to hop on the bull train if price action shows the way, but I still feel like we need a bit more salt for the crypto twitter trolls before we've earned the right to start the next cycle.
Stay safe fam.
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