Why "now" is not a good opportunity to buy (and hold) Bitcoin

Whenever there is strong dip in price, also referred to a "correction", you will find people posting comments such as this:

"Now is a great opportunity to buy up even more coins, if you're in it for the long haul!"

Let's examine.

I have been through all three previous Bitcoin bubbles and like any person with a sober mind will tell you: We're currently riding the fourth bubble.

Here's the "Anatomy of a Bubble":

Without exception, all previous bubbles have followed this pattern fairly closely (the graph is not to time scale).

The key question is: Where are we now?

Suppose that it's just the "bear trap" and that the true peak lies still ahead - you have little extra profit to make from buying right this moment. You can simply wait until it's clear that it was just a bear trap. In either case, if you want to buy for the long term, it's more likely you will get a better price after the crash.

Suppose that we have passed the peak and we now are approaching the "bull trap", you can buy in the dip, but you should sell before the true fall. The right opportunity to buy and hold (for the long haul) lies way ahead still.

Neither scenario shows an opportunity to buy and hold long term.