Block chain projects will fail!

Block chain project 99.99% will fail! "On the technical and economic blockchain expectations are high and the prospect of bearish views on how many, one of the most extreme argument is this assertion. For this assertion we sometimes joke response, so exact figures are calculated by what? Long period, what is the standard to judge the success and failure?
We all know that this is a deliberate exaggeration of the summary statement, to some extent, I also agree with this prediction. It is only because of ridicule, technological change I always optimistic, also should maintain long-term optimism. However, although we are optimistic about the great possibility of block chain technology and economy, and that we may be in a similar to the Internet in 1994 the commercial application of the beginning of the moment, but I most of the block chain application now is full of doubts.
The prospect of people block chain technology has gradually formed a consensus, it is one of the internet protocol level change: on the one hand, block chain technology for the global Internet adds a "credit layer", so that the original must rely on the Internet for the value transfer and credit intermediary transactions can be carried out directly between two people this is a block chain, driven by technology of the next generation of the Internet is the origin of "value of Internet". On the other hand, block chain economy for the digital world into tokens or passes (Token), make even $0.00001 even smaller value can be identified, and confirm the transaction, let a person, the machine can be organized, coordinated with the economic logic, which increases the primary economic elements before the lack of Internet. For example, after having this kind of economic elements, machine and machine not only can communicate with each other, It can also be traded through intelligent contracts. Because the block chain economy is based on cryptography, Xiao Feng and others call it "encryption economics".
Before the Internet, the transfer of value can be carried out in all kinds of credit intermediary assistance, economic elements are also included in a variety of ways, we can buy goods or services on the Internet, the use of bank and stock trading and other financial services, but after the block chain technology and economy to become Internet basic with the two elements layer and token the letter, part of the original, so in the long term, I brought to the block chain change is optimistic.
But I also come from a pragmatic point of their doubts. The block chain technology and economic application is still in the early stage, is still in rapid development, feasibility in functionality, ease of use, still failed to leap to be large-scale application stage, which is a lot of people's attention. But the problem is more practical the block chain project, the vast majority have been trying to attract long-term vision, direct construction of an ecological, and rarely return to the fundamental, from a small start, available products.
Generally speaking, the Internet industry in the company exists in three ways: from "product" to the "platform", then to "ecological". Products, is a company providing, meet the needs of users of things, such as web portals, public comment, etc. WeChat platform, or the Internet platform, refers to it is called a multilateral platform, connecting many Taobao, Airbnb is connected by producers and consumers. We are in the typical bilateral platform of network of retail, service trade, financial, social and other content, the main category of Internet industry research that the Internet platform is the transformation of each industry and field, technology drive the Internet platform to become the economic, social and life.2016 resource allocation and organization of the new year in August, the world's largest companies have become the Internet platform company, which is regarded as a global platform to enter The key turning point of the generation. But the deeper research on the platform, the more we find that the platform should first be a good product. It needs to start from a product that meets the needs of users, and become a platform as a result.
Next, the success of the platform will further growth, such as the use of "open platform" strategy, such as business expansion and alliances, and ultimately grow into an ecosystem. Now in Chinese, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, ant gold suit, millet, the U.S. group, drops have been in various ways. Attention should be paid to the formation of the ecological, ecological is grow out of, rather than in the beginning were planned.
But it is confusing, because most of the project believe that great changes in future block chain technology and economy, and to try on a piece of space (industry and field) on the enclosure, trying to plan and establish the "ecological". Analogy, this is equivalent to a set of real estate built in the desert, to be built for example, the new Las Vegas metro, but it is likely to be abandoned "ghost town". In fact, from the long period, the city is growing, from the short cycle, growth and planning form together.
More specifically, two types of block chain application projects now imagine: a chain is public infrastructure, often known simply as the basic chain or a chain of public, is a public or public self chain chain industry based applications in different situations will be referred to as trade association the chain or to the center of the application (DAPP). These two projects have a composition similar, all slightly biased: inner ring around the development block chain technology and economic function, the outer ring comprises at least three party -- technology developers, cooperative enterprises and ordinary users.
Now from the results, the block chain project is relatively firm formed a kind of ecological, but they all have experienced a long process of growth, may also start to establish an ecological vision, but are from a very specific point of strengthening, carried out. Several typical blocks such as the main chain project / attention ecological differentemphases: bitcoin is only the inner part, the outer ring is gradually grow in the past nine years; the focus of public Steem chain and Steemit blog platform this combination is concerned with writing ordinary users can use the blog function; in the past year, the etheric workshop is because its definition and launch ERC20 token standards to attract a large number of cooperative enterprises; rookie EOS is through technology leader DanLarimer's appeal to attract a large number of technology developers.
Block chain project plan to present many industry type doubts, it is because they do the opposite: they are trying to show great application scenarios and ecological possibilities, but not to "prick" the needle, not to mention the needle prepared to focus on the point.