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RE: Looks like the problem might be solved?
It's a very interesting situation. One more thing occurred to me. Is the prize pool affected by the steem price? As the Steem price increases, the prize pool increases, and when the Steem price decreases, the prize pool decreases.
It seems that the prize pool was relatively stable for the whole time. Apparently, the web site where I get the data was just reporting it incorrectly for some reason.
On the general question, I'm not sure what factors contribute to the size of the prize pool. I suppose the price feed from the witnesses might be one of the factors, but I've never noticed a connection.
If we get to where SBDs are printing, I think that the price would almost certainly impact the number of SBDs in the pool.