BTFD?
To buy the dip, or not to buy the dip? That is the question. BTC, and quality crypto in general as well, is sitting on classical buy levels when the longer term trend has proven to be bullish. What do you think? Is the long term trend bullish? Bullish enough to be felt now?
See my previous posts on the past 6 weeks of crypto bullishness, starting with BTC Swing Trade Update, for more complete specifics on how I see the current technicals (and how other contributors and I agree on other important underlying fundamentals too).
Read the "The Dos and Don’ts" here if you're not aware of my rules.
If we have a bigger dip, I never pull the trigger with everything I have. I recently purchased bitcoin at 9.3k. Before I bought it at 14k the same amount. This means my average buy price thanks to buying this dip at 9.3k is now about 11.5k. I plan the same if we get to 7k. This would lower my buy average price even more. As I previously mentioned, I still have this feeling to go lower. However, long therm I can bet all my crypto investment we are going higher 😆. If you compare today’s downtrand with previous, it’s sooo similar almost to the point. My guess is staying between 7-9.5k for few more months before we shoot up, many people will give up. It will be frustrating. But eventually, it will shoot up just like previous seven times. We just have to be patient!
2011
Now
$10,000 is key. We have recently seen a nice leg higher, which could ultimately turn out to be the first leg in a 1-2-3 reversal: http://thepatternsite.com/123tc.html We're in the zone where we get a higher low (point 2). That, of course, would have to be followed by a higher high (constituting point 3). For now it's a waiting game, but with the primary downtrend broken, the possibility of a retest taking us to a higher low that holds is good, in my opinion. In any event, I think that 20k short term is unlikely at this point. All of which brings me to say that I'm in basic agreement with you, but just slightly more bullish and at slightly higher levels perhaps.
I looked at your link with 1-2-3 trend reversal and as a believer of history mostly repeating itself, it perfectly makes sense. If you want to know the future, look at the history. In many cases it eventually plays out with the same outcome. I believe you are right. If we sooner than later break 10k even with this nice gap (even though in crypto there are no gaps, there is 24/7) your words will be the first that pop in my head 😆. I would think “@cryptographic was soo right!” I also noticed Thomas N. Bulkowski‘s stock market prediction and I couldn’t agree more.
Last night there were several alt-coins that triggered swing trade buys. OmiseGo, NEO, LTC to name a few. But there was no post and for the simple reason, Bitcoin -0.32% is the herd leader right now and that buy signal failed. This is where having a broader perspective of market conditions kept us out of potential losing swing trades. My focus is on Bitcoin -0.32% right now and until Bitcoin -0.32% signals I'm staying, neutral, though we may take this opportunity to add to a few coins for the long term, by slowly entering into the market with small positions. If I want to buy $450 of OMG I'm coming in with $150 positions. I use this for an example so those with smaller accounts understand size does not matter the strategy is the same. Bad habits with small accounts lead to really bad habits with big ones!!!
Yeah, market leader, but not exactly the first to signal. Nice risk/money management tip too!
Most people tend to panic at these dips and eventually they sell. Just like the euphoria at the top, they buy instead. Most of us would tell you to buy the dip paradoxically, right? When emotions are involved it’s taugh. Best way to avoid this is to have a plan ahead, buy only what you can loose and set your mind for a long therm even if the price turns against you. Right now, it’s hard to tell where we go from now. The sentiment is sideways. Even moving averages are confused which way to go. It’s really tight. I always say “hope for the best and expect the worst”. My worst case is sideways as of now. Long therm, definitely bullish. The way we are sitting on 50MA makes me nervous, one bad news and we are below. Perhaps that’s what we need, getting rid of weak hands. My portfolio is set as of now. However if I had extra cash on the sideways I would probably wait and see how it plays out.
Unfortunately, it is just like you say it is, and I agree 100%: with speculative investments like crypto, if you're disciplined and only invest what you can lose, then you're much more likely to do well in the long run.
Red And Grey Zones: Let me start to say, why I think it's unlikely we will go below 6,900 USD. S.P.Y is my main reason - it tells us, if we apply those price movements to BTC -0.32% , that we won't go as low. Also strong support levels before.
Orange Zone: Around 6,9k to 7,6k is definitely likely. The big bear flag could take us down in this area, we have super strong support around 7,2-7k USD, where we have the up trend line and also 78,6 % retrace.
Green Zone: +7,700 USD where we have 61,8 retrace. Minor waves matches this area pretty good. On top of that there could also be some strategic reasons for whales to pump it around 7,7k-7,8k IF a lot of people start to entering short positions.
I think the 61.8 is key. Bullish above, bearish below level.
I have feeling that we might break out of this triangle in the next month and bulls will take the hold.
I have seen that short term wise this market is driven by emotion and sentiments. There is FOMO building up and hopefully it should bubble up by mid June
Market psychology is a key ingredient to keep an eye on. The more I see everyone saying the same thing, the more likely I am to take the contrary position, and most assuredly to double check my own psychology on the matter!
It think I was reading this quote by Mark Twain. I don't remember the exact words but it was something like - If you find yourself at the side if the majority then it is time to re-examine your position. I find it true and applicable in a lot of scenarios.
Sorry, I forgot to thank you before for sharing your analysis - Thanks!
I wouldn’t say for sure that it is the best long term hold, but it is definitely a more stable investment in relative. The outlook for Bitcoin wasn’t that appealing when its scalability issues become apparent during the time when Bitcoin was all over the headline. However, with the introduction of Lightning Network and given the current market dominance of Bitcoin, I think that it is definitely here to stay. The more people joining the cryptocurrency revolution, the more Bitcoin value will appreciate ( given it retains its current dominance ). I am not too sure if it will be the ” best ” long term hold, but I bet it will bring you some decent return in the near future.
I don't think it's one of the best long term holds given the very high quality alternatives that have much greater appreciation potential, but I think you're right in thinking that it will be around for a long time . . . being the bluest of the crypto "blue chips".
Well, the market seems to be taking a pounding as of lately because of all the negative news. Bing joining in the fun by making a decision to ban crypto ads like google and other platforms. While bing might not be as big as google for example, it's still bad news and people are scared. Oh and I thought we will be seeing more greens in the charts, haha.
Anyway, the situation is as always good for investors I believe, because everything is at a lower price. I think by the end of the month we will see Bitcoin cross 10k and have a strong resistence there. We simply have to wait it out as usual!
We'll have to wait and see if this is dumb/scared money selling the bad news or not. With the nice pump we got on Monday that coincided with the weekly open of futures trading suggesting professional buying, my bet is that it could well be the case, but, like I've said, we'll have to wait and see.
Markets behave weirdly over the last few months.
I mean yeah...we had that bull run during January and of course the correction later on,but it lasted very long. Actually it still does.
We use to say “the market” but it is us. People determine prices. And when inexperienced people get involved these are the results. (I exclude forms of manipulation) since we cannot do something about it.
Someone would expect that positive news would come from the annual event. But till now silence...
And if I remember correctly two years in a row there was a bullish run after the event.
So to the question: Everything has to do with what kind of investor you are.In the long term cryptos and especially the big names (here I will include Steem since I believe in it) will show major profits.
Actually I think it is always a good time to buy.
Would it really matter if someone buys BTC at 8k at 10 or 12?Since we all believe that it could eventually end up at 100k?
I'm still one who very much doubts 100k, not to mention some of the more outlandish figures. I put a $5,000 fair value figure on BTC a long time ago, perhaps for the first time even as much as 2 years ago when it was trading in low triple figures. I was obviously conservative with that target, but the truth be said, I still use that as my baseline relative figure based on a 5 trillion dollar crypto cap split among 50 survivors. Of course we can double that if there are only 25 survivors, or even come up with a $20,000 target if there are only 12 main players splitting the pot. The 5 trillion figure could also double, or quadruple, and that would, of course, move long term targets up to $40,000-$80,000. Throw in a little euphoric hysteria, and anything can happen, but, like I said, I'm not so sure.
What I am sure about is that the still largely "undiscovered" quality issues like STEEM and BitShares have much better chances of seeing potential 10x gains, not to mention their very real 100x and 1000x possibilities - because if you do the math, those are real figures if they turn out to be one of the survivors and gain their rightful market share.
50 or even 25 survivors?i think we won't reach that numbers...But i do believe that BTC will end up way more than 100k. Either we like it or not it is the leader and people are still uneducated to do their own research and find undiscovered quality..
As for this
I too believe in Steem and BTS.I only have one concern.Can you imagine this platform with a Steem price 100x?Pretty much everyone in here is gonna be a millionaire...and to be honest I don't see it happening...But a realistic scenario of 20$ per steem is possible.
and actuallly you know what frightens me with BTS?The fact that it has really big supply...
And history showed than a coin with a supply of almost 4bil never reached those highs...
On the other hand if we see 5 tril market cap...everything is possible
Thanks for the response @cryptographic,and i d love to hear your thought
You're spot on my friend
In my opinion the overall cryptocurrency market is still in its infancy and will likely continue to grow for the foreseeable future. For many of these coins, their lower price does represent a great buying opportunity. While many of the mainstream media outlets would have you believe that cryptocurrency markets are crashing, they remain at all-time highs from just 120 days ago. In the past, various similar corrections have taken place and some even worse than the one we just witnessed. In my biased opinion, I believe that the entire sector has a lot more growth ahead of it.
It's a repeating pattern, and it's bullish!
. . . until it isn't, but I think that's a long ways away. 😁
So I'm going to just patiently sit back and wait for this swing trade to come to me. We will most likely break 8200 soon which means 8k won't hold and we will test and probably break 7800-7200. Once we get back to the former low we will break that too and once that breaks... BTC -0.39% is falling into a sinkhole as there is no support for another $1000 till possibly the high 5k range. If that doesn't hold then 3k is the next real support. 6k-3k is my Swing Trade target where I will be scaling in buys, anything below 3600 I'm just going to buy like no tomorrow and dollar cost average.
The price could not break 10000.00 resistance level and we saw a downward movement to a possible support zone . It can give us new reversal signals with further upward wave. This support zone is formed by 0.50 and 0.618 Fib levels and it also includes 8000.00 support level and SMA50 from the daily time frame. We can consider this zone as a strong one and we should expect for a price reversal with further upward movement to 9000.00 and 10000.00 resistance levels. The bullish divergence gives a trend reversal signal. If the price bounces from the support zone and breaks the downtrend line, we'll get the trend reversal confirmation. It will give us a new buy opportunity as well. If the price drops below the support zone , the uptrend line we'll be another place providing possible reversal signals and buy opportunities.
Sir @cryptographic,
you have presented blog post in a community about a great way of marketing about trading and you can do a great deal of analysis. I think you are important for the community in the community and you are an outstanding analyzer.
Nice description of the key levels and what to watch for on the intraday timeframe. You've got some ambitious targets. Those would be some fantastic buys if we were to see those levels.