First, I wanna thank my friend @passion-ground for his recent post, containing two excellent EW explanatory videos by a 20+ years veteran Elliottician. I agree with most of what he says in those videos and I resteemed the post.

But there is one important thing that I disagree on. The SHS pattern he shows in the second video and the "risk of ruin trajectory".

For me this is not a "clear" SHS pattern:

1. The volume does not confirm it. This is not a must criterion for an SHS patterns to unfold, but a good SHS pattern usually shows some kind of volume confirmation.

2. SHS patterns with a downward slope, like this one, are also a bullish wedge and therefore considered a trend continuation pattern (read continuation of the uptrend since the first day of BTC).

3. If you consider this to be a right shoulder, than it is a rather crippled one. It just doesn't look right to me.

I have seen many SHS patterns and iSHS patterns unfold. The most recent one being the huge SHS pattern in NEO/BTC which did not hit the target of Zero.

Therefore I conclude that the risk of BTC going down close to zero is not that big as it might have seemed in his video. Right now, we actually are below the line of DOOM that he pointed out, which I don't think is a problem.

But I am pointing this out for your awareness. Because awareness keeps the panic away.

So let's get back to my count:

This wave 4 correction could be over very soon. Even if it turns out to be only wave A of 4 later on, it would still mean BTC reaching 14-16k again, before it crashes to 3,500$ as @passion-ground has shown in his video.

Today I also found another alternate with a final target of 4,800$, which I will only show, if my 5,800 target is easily breached.

UPDATE: I can't do the morning update, because there is a gateway timeout. I can't post, so I try to summarize. BTC has dropped to near 6,000$ which I expected in this post. The DOW and DAX and NIKKEI and any major indice dropped hard yesterday evening. I was one of the lucky ones to profit from this. It was a huge selloff driven by many short vola strategies imploding within minutes. Basically some hedge funds are insolvent now and needed to liquidate other positions too. DOW is down 3700P in only a few days.

If you think this to be useful information:


Feel free to use and share my charts, but please mention me, @ew-and-patterns as the author. Otherwise it is considered plagiarism and I will flag you and advise my friends to do the same.

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DISCLAIMER: This post / analysis serves general information purposes only. I am not, and never will be a financial adviser. The material in this post does not constitute any trading advice whatsoever. This is just the way I see the charts and what my trading ideas (from my personal experiences) are. I use chart pattern and Elliott Wave analysis for my trading ideas.
For full disclosure: The author of this post is holding positions in this market at the time of this post. Please conduct your own due diligence, if you plan to copy anyones investment decisions!
If you make any trades or investments after reading this post, it is completely in your own responsibility. I am not responsible for any of your losses. By reading this post you acknowledge and accept to never hold me accountable for any of your losses.

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Have a nice day :-)