Bitcoin Update

I follow bitcoin not because I am a bitleaver who thinks it's amazing (I don't - there are better cryptocurrencies out there) but because unfortunately lots of the crypto market is still wedded to the performance of bitcoin.

So, with this in mind, here's my latest rundown on BTC/USD.

With Bitcoin it is very very very important to keep in mind the macrotrend. I rarely ever daytrade it for this reason because a lot of the trends and wave-patterns are extremely long lived.

Here is the weekly chart for BTC/USD.

Now I'm bullish here. Let me try to set out the reasons why.

Firstly, the support line at roughly 5072 has been tested at least 4 times in the past year.

This is significant because it points to very resilient support hiding here which has repelled four good attempts to breach it meaning it's very strong.

Secondly, the form of what I considered originally to be a triangle wave or compression wave looks now to be something different.

The curvature of the trend actually shows a curvature rather than a slope.

I became suspicious that this could actually be the left-half of the bowl of a cup-n-handle formation.

The cup-n-handle traditionally shows, rather than a triangle or slope, a basin combined with a pullback and then a rally.

So my hypothesis is that this could be what we're seeing form in the BTC/USD market.

In order for this hypothesis to be correct, we'll see a period of negative gains and losses - effectively sideways movement - and then the market will begin to make gains again (albeit slowly) until we're back at 10,000 (this would suggest that those looking for Bitcoin to regain it's losses in 2019 would be correct) and then we're going to see a pullback (caused by people who've waited AGES to exit the markets selling up) and then a re-rally past the 10,000 bracket.

Remember, the crypto market as a whole still largely follows Bitcoin. So any hint of a slow-burn rally here is bullish across-the-board.

Keep an eye on what happens over the coming months. Q4 and Q1 2019 will be especially important for the crypto markets