Bitcoin UTXOs in Loss Mirror March 2020 Black Swan Event
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a recovery from a 'black swan' event, similar to the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, as indicated by data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. The platform revealed a significant spike in loss-making unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) in one of its Quicktake posts on September 7. UTXOs represent BTC left over after an on-chain transaction is executed, and CryptoQuant's UTXOs in Loss metric tracks when large numbers of these UTXOs are worth more than they were when the BTC was originally bought.
Currently, more of these UTXOs are in loss compared to their original acquisition price than at any time since March 2020. At that time, BTC/USD dropped 60% to its lowest levels since March 2019. CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu suggested that, like March 2020, Bitcoin may be experiencing, or already recovering from, a curveball selling event. In percentage terms, 38% of UTXOs were in loss at the end of August, a figure last seen in April 2020.
Bitcoin remains locked in a tight range amid a lack of overall BTC price trend. With neither a breakout nor breakdown willing to complete, cost basis data likewise shows the current spot price caught between the acquisition prices of various investor cohorts. The 'Realized Price' — the price at which the supply last moved, divided by age group — shows that short-term holders fall into aggregate loss when BTC/USD is below around $27,000. However, a full capitulation event has yet to be recorded on-chain.
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