To all the Armchair Epidemiologists

In Crypto is Easy, my newsletter, I usually stick to bitcoin, altcoins, and markets. For my March 25, 2020 issue, I included a note about Coronavirus and realized I should have shared it here, too.

Please read this and comment.

To all the Armchair Epidemiologists

I want to address another narrative I see circulating among the cryptosphere, namely, that we need to all get back to work and let Coronavirus take its course.

Here’s the problem with that approach.

Coronavirus is not a type of flu. It’s not even related to the flu. It’s a version of the common cold, the same disease your average person gets twice each year, on average. Almost everybody on earth will get this Coronavirus. For most people, it’s actually milder than a cold—many don’t even show symptoms.

Why the fuss?

Because unlike the common cold, Coronavirus sometimes attacks the lower respiratory tract. When this happens, your body starts to suffocate. Sometimes, the virus spreads to organs around your lungs, causing catastrophic failure (mostly from your body’s immune response going haywire).

While only a small percentage of people get this reaction, the raw number is potentially massive. And it grows exponentially with every human contact.

What’s one percent of 7 billion people? 70 million, all getting sick within a few weeks, perhaps a few months of each other.

Look at Wuhan. Italy, Spain, Iran, and the U.S. have just started getting a taste of the carnage—despite extraordinary (but late) measures authorities have taken to reduce the spread of the disease. They can’t keep up. It’s a medical horror show, with people dying on the hospital floors and bodies piling up in morgues.

If we all go back to our normal business, imagine how much worse it will be. Many millions more people will suffer life-threatening complications within months, possibly weeks. Our hospitals and morgues will be overrun. Crucial workers will fall sick, leaving our security, supply chain, transportation, and manufacturing industries understaffed.

People complain about canceled flights. Do you want your flight canceled because humanity is fighting against pandemic disease or because your pilot is too sick to fly (or dead)?

For the “herd immunity” crowd, do you really think our economy will recover more quickly when our most experienced, knowledgeable workers and business leaders are dead or hospitalized? When entire industries are shocked and disrupted for weeks, maybe months?

Do you think that “normalcy” will not hurt the economy just as much as telework and social distancing?

Right now, many people can work productively from home or isolated settings. Those who need to work in close contact with other humans can still do so. With every interaction we don’t have, we reduce the spread of the virus exponentially. As a result, people who get sick will have a chance to get life-saving treatment from doctors who have enough supplies and equipment to treat them.

It sucks that so many people are losing their jobs. It’s shitty as all hell. Governments are doing the best they can to weather the storm, at the risk of creating new problems. It seems like there’s no end game, but until the rate of infection tapers off, we need to stop spreading the disease while ramping up the production of medical equipment, therapeutics, and vaccines. We can’t go back in time and fix the mistakes that got us to this point, we can only deal with the present and persevere.

It all sucks but consider the alternative—economic havoc, mass hysteria, and widespread human suffering, all at once. There are no good options.

Things will get worse before they get better. Bitcoin will be ok. Maybe the moonshot will get delayed, maybe not. Maybe the price crashes again, maybe it goes full FOMO.

If there’s anything to NOT worry about right now, it’s crypto. As long as bitcoin stays above $5,550, everything should be ok. If it goes lower, we have a plan for that, too. I'll keep you posted in this newsletter.

Take care of yourself and your family. Worry about your loved ones. We’re all in this together.

As far as bitcoin goes, relax and enjoy the ride.

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Mark Helfman is editor of Crypto is Easy and a top writer on Medium for bitcoin and investing topics. His book, Consensusland: A Cryptocurrency Utopia, explores the social, cultural, and business challenges of a fictional country that runs on cryptocurrency. In a past life, he worked for U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.