Mayer Multiple: Trace puts out his next set of "potentials"
Trace Mayer is the guy behind the Mayer Multiple. The Mayer Multiple is the ratio of the current price to the 200 moving day average. They then model that with a simulation to figure out when buying bitcoin is profitable. The Mayer Multiple discussion is hosted here: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-mayer-multiple/
There is an automated twitter feed available here: https://twitter.com/TIPMayerMultple
The last tweet says the following: Mayer Multiple- @TIPMayerMultple, 18 minutes ago, The current Mayer Multiple is 0.88 with a BTC price of $6,964.60 USD and a 200 day moving average of $7,895.30 USD
What it's doing is looking at the current price of bitcoin and comparing it to the 200 day moving average price of bitcoin. Over the last 200 days the average price of bitcoin is $7,895. When they took a snapshot of price the current price was $6,964. When you divide the second number by the first you get 0.88, which is to say that the current price is 88% of the moving average price.
Scanning this overall chart you can see that the multiple is at 0.88 only 18.85% of the time (sorry for the black box around the wrong number, that's from the website, I didn't generate this, you should be looking above that at the 0.8-0.9 section about 5 rows down:
The Mayer Multiple is below 1
While for many holders of bitcoin that isn't a fun prospect, but for people holding cash that could be exciting for you or your family. It's a rare opportunity to purchase the coin below the 200 day moving average. Of course price could still go down, and there's risks, but for people looking for a bargain entrance on cryptos it would seem that starting sometime around now and going out for what may be the next week or two could be very strong entry points. This could be a crash... from the interest I saw recently in Boston I don't think it's a crash, but it is a possibility.
Trace has a personal Twitter feed too
Less than a month ago he put out this chart:
He updated it today:
We've reached as low at $6800
That puts the Mayer Multiple at a low of 0.86. When they run the simulations basically any investment that comes in below their average price representing the 200 day moving average times 1.47 ends up being a good time to buy in. That said I've started buying some litecoin with cash that I still have around. There's may be lower lows still to come and we may have a few more weeks before this correction ends. I'm still pretty comfortable coming in here.
I don't know you or your circumstances
Crypto is risky. I don't know how much risk tolerance you have or should have in your portfolio. Make your own choices. For me I think this is a strong time to buy and will look for some even better deals over the next week or two and keep layering in some purchases.
We have entered a buying range hard to nail down a price or time line of how long we will have this opportunity but oh be wise what more can I say
I think this is the best investment advice you can get in a time that everyone is panicing. Offcourse it is not sure yet where the bottom is, but it will come because BTC is indeed fundamentally stronger than ever. I am all in in crypto already, but if I wasn't I would start buy dollar average from now. In a few years it will almost certainly pay off.
It is a wild ride for sure. There seems to be a little panic in the air, but you definately see the excitement from people looking to buy low. I just hope it doesn't stay low haha.@freedompoint
I actually think that staying low, but stable for a while could be good. Then people considering buying in wont fear a sudden drop so much. I think a slow growth would be the best outcome. Then people will have time to do their research and limit their risks, rather than buying in just out of fear to miss out.
Thanks for sharing this @aggroed. It's interesting that you found this from Trace Mayer - I generally do not follow him (no reason, I just have a small group that I follow that I feel make good calls, and don't need to expand yet).
I do however respect his opinion and views, and I'm happy to see the conclusion that he has come to.. I'm thinking that the end of February/March will be a good time for the market, but that's just my opinion.
I agree that it is a good time to buy (again, just my opinion). Although personally personally I do not hold near as much BTC as I used to, and I now focus on holding coins that I feel are doing good for the world in some way, shape or form, be it providing a useful service, working in the renewable energy sector, or working in the medicinal industry, I try to invest and work with cryptocurrencies that fill this role.
Currently, I am trying to get delegated SP for a project that I am working on, where I will use my experience and skills to grow the Steemit platform, and increase the ratio of daily active users to Steemit accounts. I can explain it in more detail if you are interested, but I do not want to come out with a long, unrelated comment on your posts. Let me know if you are interested! Thanks again for sharing this interesting piece.
Crypto currency are highly volatile for me bitcoin could still go down and am already accumulating as much as i can now.. The mayer multiple is highly informative and i also love the analysis.. Followed on twitter already.. Thanks for sharing mate @aggroed
Thanks for flagging. I bought his dip way too early and was out of cash by 6900! Congrats to those who waited
BTC will put in a low and will recover in 2018. There is potential that the low will be much lower than any current prediction.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@davebrewer/hodlers-can-be-uninformed-morons-do-you-understand-you-are-not-buying-lottery-tickets
You just stole this words from my mouth. This is really a good time to buy.
Crypto ia not for the feeble minded but for people who are strong at heart. Btc will bounce back that's for sure. We don't just know when
$115,000 per coin seems a little optimistic but who knows?
Your post is pretty good and lots of upvote
why my post is never upvote people ????
do i because low level is not open please upvote me and comment i want to go forward also kayak you thanks