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RE: Despite market optimism I still don't think we bottomed 📉🤔
I have to disagree with this one.
My reasoning is that your scaling is off. In both cases you are looking at 18 month charts. This is not correct as the size of the two hype cycles is not equal. The first one is approximately twice the size of the more recent one. You know this yourself, you've said on more than one occoasion that we've been through far worse, and you were right. The two highlighted blocks are not the same!
Solution: scale them the same and overlay: hey presto! All will be well! 😀 Luckily for you I psychically anticipated your post and so I wrote this one a day ago: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/btc-long-term-pattern-analysis . It will show exactly what I mean. 😉
Yes, I saw your post and it's enticing and definitely a possibility but I remain very skeptical and am ready for the scenario I outlined in my post above.
It's not just about the patterns either. I mainly go off of the feeling I get from the market sentiment. I simply don't think the market emotions are correct yet. We haven't had capitulation yet.
As for the two highlighted blocks not being the same, yes that is correct - we're only about halfway through. The remainder of our current 'block' still needs to occur IMO, which is the hopefuly rally -> failure -> slow decline to definitive bottom. By this estimate, we are still many months off from reaching this definitive bottom. To me that makes sense, because it's going to take a while to truly dishearten everybody.
We will see though! Once we breach 8K the journey to 10K shouldn't be far off, which is the make-or-break level IMO
Ah, you and I are seeing this differently. That's great! When people all agree then nobody learns anything.
Okay, I see your arguments. My counter argument is that capitulation did happen and that the bear is over (I have a post about that too 😉).
It will be interesting to see which of us is more accurate with their predictions.
I would wish you luck, but that would be bad for me and worse for the markets! 😂
Hah no don't wish me luck! The opposite rather, I wish I would be wrong ;)
I am curious to know one thing though: When did you enter the crypto (investing) space? Have you joined in 2017 or were you around before then? I mainly ask because I'm interested in trying to find out if my assumption that people who are new(er) to the space will have a more optimistic outlook in this situation.
In any case, whether we go up or down really doesn't matter much to me. I never trade BTC anymore so I have my position and I just hodl it out. Trading BTC is super stressful...the train could leave any moment without you, if you're not on it for one second
I started buying in May 2017. But trying to pigeon-hole me is an exercise in futility, I'm very non-standard. I did market research first (March / April) based on the entire history before deciding to buy. My initial days were good, but then I ran into the drop from June to Mid September. I lost over half of my investment within a few months. Of course I got it back later on. And then lost it again... And am now in limbo! I've never cared much - counting as I do on the long-term upward trend.
Rest assured that I am never optimistic . Ever. I despise optimists, I can't tell you how much I despise them! As a professional operations planner they make my life an absolute misery! I have so many examples of that this week at work already!
My outlook may be optimistic, but when it is, it is firmly based in realism. Wait until the bull market, then you'll be calling me a pessimist!
Once again: this post: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/i-m-realistic-about-the-crypto-market-you-aren-t
Oh no I'm not trying to pigeon hole you in any way. It's just something I wondered for myself. It's something that I'm starting to notice: all the longer term veterans are really pessimistic it seems like.
From the outskirts it looks like a divide between those who think we have bottomed and those who think we haven't yet and I'm wondering if under the surface that divide is perhaps correlated to the length of time in the space (read: numbed down bitterness). Which will end up being true is a mystery. On one hand the people with more tme in the market have a more historical outlook, but that may be an out-dated approach in a market dominated by people newer to the space.
Exactly for the reason you are stating, the bear period should be longer. 2014 was correction on 2 year bull, now we had a 3 year bull, i would not expect new bull before november
If only crypto was as simple as 1 + 1 = 2. Sadly it isn't. The fact is that we have no precedent for this, the history of cryptocurrencies is too short.
During that history we have had several other corrections/bear markets. They are dwarfed by the big ones, but zooming into the charts clearly reveals them, some with very significant percentage price drops. This version of events affects your take on the market in two ways:
So I'm still fairly confident in my approach to the interpretation of chart data, BUT, I think it's very important to remember that charts are not infallible in any way.
To me a Fundamental Analysis of the current market is more important. From an FA perspective, institutional sentiment towards crypto grows more positive by the week, fuelled somewhat by regulations and financial instruments which are now being developed in support of crypto. The market was also so saturated with FUD that it was rather obviously suppressed. FUD has how almost become a "crying wolf" situation and investor optimism is clearly on the rise. These and many other reasons would make it virtually impossible for the bottom to drop out of crypto right now. Clever money would simply buy it up too fast.
But sit in the bear camp with @pandorasbox if you must. I can't tell you what is right, I can only tell you my best informed guess. Frankly I'm always just glad to see people thinking about crypto issues and doing their own research, even when we reach opposing conclusions. I hope I'm right, but I would be a fool to be certain. Only time will resolve this debate.