$XRP #XRPBTC Extensive TA - Day Trader Explains
Hello Lads and Ladies,
Welcome back to TJs daily TA, this time requested by the Elite Trading Group of Cryptic Block Trading, we are taking a look into XRPBTC and see whether is it a good idea to enter a long or a short position here or maybe set up orders at safer points and wait for them get filled.
Let's jump straight into it. First of all, you will see me working a lot with trend lines, trend angles and support and resistance zones.
We are taking here the approach on the 2h to have a nice mid-term analysis of XRPBTC. We have seen an insane pump of XRPBTC and to be really honest, for me XRPBTC is the new high cap pump and dump coin, which is kind of nice because it has the volatility that we normally need to make trades on a daily basis, yet again it brings a lot of risk with it and requires a very strong eye and understanding of everything what is happening and what it is approaching from a technical level.
We can see indicated in red colour, the strong downtrend with exactly the same angle for support and its resistance (simply draw the obvious trend line, then clone it to have the same angle of it). We can see that during this downtrend XRPBTC has had some small bounces at major support zones, nevertheless, it just continued down until after the "big crash" and then, after liquidating a lot of people it started a new uptrend and broke out the red downtrend.
Currently we are in the green indicated uptrend channel, where as I indicated the up trend resistance (which again is a cloned trend line, so we have the same angle) not as strong as the actual uptrend support, since it has been confirmed only with a few wicks and the break of the next resistance zone and basically the "confirmed break out" would then most likely push through that uptrend channel resistance (indicated slightly in green).
So, what do I think is most likely to happen?
I believe, we will stay within this shorting zone, have a double top or even a triple top formation and then head back down to the channel support or even to the next horizontal support again (which you can see as the top and the bottom the green support zone). The reasoning for this is, that we have not the best average position for a natural or slow angle-followed increase for XRPBTC. Basically, we need to come down a little more and then have a nice and really strong entry to open a long position. Especially, since we are in and very near the shorting resistance zone, I would rather tend to open a short, stagger up shorts and have a SL at the yellow horizontal support.
Here is the reason why. I said before, that we do not have good position for a slow angle-followed increase of the price BUT we have a nice position for a sudden impulse move.
So, why not long if there will be an impulse move? Well, pretty easy, predicting an impulse move correctly has a chance of less than 25%. Moreover, this impulse move AT MAX, from the position that we are at right now, would most likely go to exactly the crossing of the uptrend resistance and the yellow horizontal support because we would have at least two obvious groups of traders having A LOT of short orders sitting there, the ones who see the trend angles, and the ones who see the horizontal resistance, also us who identify both groups. In addition to that, we would have a lot of indicators in the over bought area and add people who are shorting.
NEVERTHELESS, there is a chance that XRPBTC will just continue pumping and get to the next horizontal support, but I would identify this chance at 10% probability of actually happening.
Now, the potential trade and trade set up @here (note, this chart is on Bitfinex, not on BitMex, of course we want to short on BitMex and would take this chart only as a reference).
SHORT XRPBTC (at max 10x leverage, since Stop Loss is near).
Staggers - 7200 - 7300 - 7500 - 7750 (double stagger of course e.g. -> 1 2 6 24)
Targets - 6900 - 6650 - 6450
Stop Loss - A CLOSE above 7800
Based on the TA above you could also consider to start longing with the first stagger, at 6650.
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Cheers, TJ