What Is Technical Analysis

in #cryptocurrency7 years ago (edited)

In short, it is the astrology of the financial world.

It is a pseudoscience that cites a correlation between mathematics and human behavior. 
And, although this is theoretically possible, it is well beyond the scope of statistical analysis. 

In truth, if such were even remotely capable of semi-accurate predictions, then we should be able to create an oracle bot to rake in millions.

The fact that these indicators need to be interpreted by a human mind, allows for wrong predictions to be blamed on incorrect judgements stemming from human error and correct predictions to be praised due to a dedicated analysis of the charts.

So why does it work?
Or, why does it appear to skew the odds from a 50/50 to a 60/40 or higher?

Simple, what determines if the prices goes up or down, what determines its Value
We do. 

As long as enough investors believe that the market will behave a certain way due to expert interpretations of the same star signs, and there is nothing (as far as news goes) to contradict, then the market will behave in accordance to those beliefs. As people are unwilling to relinquish control or would rather believe themselves to be significant, what should be irrelevant, becomes substantial as more and more people adopt the same lines of thought.

Thus, in an established market with infrequent news, if 40% of the investors subscribe to technical analysis and can successfully adopt the same interpretations as that of the most popular practitioners, then they will likely not be disappointed in their attempts at financial fortunetelling. 

But, for new and emerging markets, such as that for Cryptocurrencies, what matters is keeping track of the news, which is frequent and carries significant weight as investors are anxious to grasp at any sign of support or opposition. The power of technical analysis to affect this market, will not come into play until Cryptocurrencies are firmly accepted by the global community as the solid investment that it potentially is.

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In crypto, it is nothing more then a self fulfilling prophecy​.

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