OMG that hurt!

Checking fingers, hands, legs .. yeah I'm still alive. Crypto hits hard at times.

So this was a bubble?

The graph below is what the public sees. This is what Warren Buffett predicted. This is what the mainstream media loves to tell. Bitcoin is in a bubble and now its popping.

Some of my friends worry that it will go to zero. That this is it. Are we done?

Below is my opinion, by looking at what happened in the past. This is not financial advice, just a starting point for discussion.

The pro's look at logarithmic charts, because bitcoin's rise is exponential:

Bitcoin long term chart - logarithmic scale

This longer term chart shows that we're still doing pretty good. We're up 2000% from january 2017. This drop was 'only' 60%.

What situation is Bitcoin in?

We are in the dead cat bounce now. The market can consolidate from here (around $13000 according to Clif High) or crash further.

Possibility 1: Consolidation

We could simply be consolidating from a huge jump up.

Evidence to support this is the Bitcoins NVT ratio, explained here: .

Bitcoin’s NVT ratio is a comparison of how much the network is being valued (marketcap) to how much the network is being used (transactions).

Hey NVT, are we in a bubble today?

Nope, we're still good. The line is within the bounds.

However when the parameters are tuned a little, we get a different view. It shows that this was more than just a quick correction.

http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/
Bitcoin NTV signal - we've topped for the next coming months

The most positive evidence I can find for a moving up / consolidation period is that we're holding the 200 day moving average:

If we can hold this for a while that is a great signal for more upside.

Possibility 2: Three cats and a moon

This pattern has happened often in Bitcoin history. We could have mooned in 2017 (up 2000%) and are now in re-entry.

In this case I will be selling on $9000, $10.000 and $12.000 and then simply wait for Bitcoin to correct further down to get back in. We could move as low as $4000 or all the way to the previous top, $1200. We will see a year long bear market.

What evidence supports this?

Google trends search history is down for 'buy bitcoin', 'btc usd'.

Bitcoin transactions are down too from all time highs.

People are simply are less interested in Bitcoin at this time.

Friends around me are excited about bitcoin, I'm still in invested in Bitcoin, and the forums and reddits are optimisitic still.

But what I read from the google trends and chartinfo is that global interest is down.

Buy or sell?

We can't have a quick move back up when global user interest is low.

I'd say the most likely outcome is that we go up to ~$10.000, and from there move sideways/down for the couple next months. If we're lucky the market might go back up to $18.000 before we crash again.

As one reddit user puts it:

"The "dip" isn't over... it'll most likely rebound to about 10k at some point after all the panic sellers disappear. Then it will then crash again one more time before settling way below where we are right now for the next 2 months/years before the next run."