Bitcoin Bubble? 🤔 What The Hell Are Bubbles 🗨 Anyway? A Cryptocurrency Analysis (Cryptoverse)
On today's episode of The Cryptoverse:
You know I am sick to death of people talking about bubbles and how crypto currencies are in a bubble without having a freaking clue what a bubble is. Simon spent the whole episode talking about bubbles to clarify the issue.
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Good explanation. Articulates why (besides the threat of unknown US regulations) I have not felt motivated to participate in ICOs. I am not an expert, and I don't really trust "experts" in the crypto space. I prefer to support after a utility becomes evident to help it's success. So my "speculation" is based on evaluation of progress and thorough accounting and is tailored by actual results. Guess I wasn't meant to be a classic speculator. Thanks, Chris for articulating that. (And now I have to search for equivalent sketch pad software for Linux. That was cool!)
It was Autodesk Sketchbook :)
Hi ,
Thanks for the great content
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Hey Chris, thank you for another great video and the detailed explanation. I completely agree with everything you share in the video. Keep up with the great work!
Will do :-)
What would be the correct way for people to ask/state what they are trying to say? Should they instead ask, "How much of Bitcoin is speculative?" or "Is Bitcoin excessively speculative compared to utility value?" Is anyone who refers to a "Housing bubble" making nonsense? Housing will always have utility value...
Perceived value is not always in addition to utility value. Assets can be both overvalued and undervalued. Fittingly, Warren Buffett called Bitcoin a bubble, and he made all his money by determining the value of assets/companies.
Claiming Bitcoin is in a bubble is to say that its price contains an excessively high proportion of perceived value, and that its utility value is very low, which, as a payment network, it is. Its transaction capacity is far too low and its fees are far too high. It's hard to say what Bitcoin's utility value is, but it certainly isn't $100 billion. I wouldn't even put it at $10 billion, 300k transactions/day (109,500,000/year) is effectively nothing when, just in the US, there are over 30 billion credit card transactions/year, constituting less than 20% of the total. Bitcoin could process 0.073% of ONLY US transactions, and in reality much less than that since most of the network is used to service speculators.
"BUT MUH DIGITAL STORE OF VALUE" every pure currency in the crypto space acts as a store of value as a fuction of adoption and use, except every single one of them functions better as a payment network than Bitcoin. Many people are already figuring that out, as Bitcoin's market dominance has collapsed this year.
The fundamental point is that we are unable to measure how much is utility and how much is speculation. "Very low" isn't a measurement :)