RE: BTC halving watch: ~9 months out and what does it mean for Steem?
The price of cryptocurrency is formed on the basis of a large number of variable factors. Therefore, predicting it is a thankless task. But, like everyone else, this question interests me.
Undoubtedly, the rise in the price of Bitcoin will drag the price of STEEM along with it. However, in my opinion, there are many STEEM holders right now who are waiting for the price to rise in order to sell their stake. Therefore, I would venture a guess that the next bull market peak for STEEM will be lower than the previous one and the STEEM/BTC price ratio will decrease.
This is likely to be the final stage of the cleanup of the STEEM economy, with the blockchain leaving most of the disillusioned. After that, if things continue as they are now, the STEEM economy will begin to recover. Recovery is possible, because a large part of the community is motivated to hold tokens, thanks to the club system. Also, part of the community voluntarily burns part of their rewards. It seems that it has no effect, but I am convinced that it does not.
All these predictions are worthless if there are big shifts. For example, I'm sure that Justin Sun is getting ready to leave the project, since the amount of TRX that authors receive for their posts has been gradually decreasing recently. This can have both a negative informational effect and a positive one.
Good point, and you might be right. I hadn't thought about that possibility. My thinking had been that the fund might just be running out of tokens. Around the time that the TRX rewards started, I seem to remember that steemit had transferred something like 22 million STEEM to one of the exchanges. I had always assumed that that transfer was what funded TRX Integration, and that TRX rewards would eventually run out. If so, the repeated reductions might just be intended to extend the fund's life.