Monero (XMR) : Genesis Mining Contract Evaluation (Caution!)

Hey Steemians and Miners,

Monero (XMR), an often undervalued coin that many have looked over in favor of other coins, has seen upward momentum recently that has begun a large stimulation of the coin's interest lately in the market. 

Monero saw an all-time-high in it's strength on June 12th, reaching a price point of 59.09 USD with a Market Cap of 863 mil. This came back down to a heavily supported level of 43.00 USD at the beginning of July and has been rising steadily, the Market Cap at 602 mil on July 2nd is now at the recent level of 677 mil. 

This market stimulation could show indications of finding a stronger support-level, which may make 50.00 USD XMR a new possibility. 

Though the price of Monero (XMR) is showing supportive signs, the price of 3rd party mining contracts at Genesis Mining have remained the same. I wanted to re-evaluate the profitability of these contracts, for the purpose of reviewing whether or not this is something I could take a renewed look at obtaining. 

For these calculations, I will be using the 500 H/s 2-Year Contract that will cost 416.50 USD.  Genesis Mining claims that their Monero contracts are without 'maintenance fees for the whole period', so I will use 0 Watts and 0.00 USD variables for energy costs. 

Using a profitability calculator such as the one available at coinwarz.com, we receive the following output:

This shows a daily accumulation of 0.00232 XMR at a value of 1.12 USD. At this rate, the hashpower will produce 1 XMR every 44 days. This cycle would require roughly 384 days at the current price of 47.68 USD to return your cost-basis and begin earning profit. 

These results will vary from day to day and will be affected by different market factors, but this is a good estimation of the value of the contract. With a forecast return on cost-basis at over 1 calendar year, I would strongly urge caution before jumping on-board with many of the people advocating these contracts in the last few days as highly-profitable. 

If the price of Monero (XMR) does find new support-levels and continues a bullish trend, a return of cost-basis could be achieved much quicker, making the contract a better option. However, if market price of XMR is the determining factor on whether or not the contract yields enough profitability then I would suggest buying into the coin directly with the funds in order to speculate on this price prediction. 

If XMR loses it's recent support lines and drops back down to 40.00 USD, this contract would go below 1.00 USD per day and would not be a viable option in my opinion. 

For these contracts to produce a better yield, it appears that the hashrate would need to be doubled to 1000 H/s at a minimum, quickly becoming UN-affordable for the average person. 

It's my opinion that buyers use caution on Monero contracts at this time. 

Anyway, I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts, so follow and comment below. I am not a financial advisor, so please do your own research before making any financial decisions. 

Keep mining friendos. 

@rabbt