We don't really need institutional money but it will come eventually anyway. The way I see it the institutions are just vehicles or tools that people use who are too busy (or lazy) to do the research and invest themselves. So, as demand for cryptos increases, demand from institutional clients increases with it and the institutions themselves will respond to that. Maybe I am being too cynical but to my eye most institutions are really just herd followers and parasites. They will come when there is money to be made and their clients demand it.
No, I don't believe so. Is there a maximum upside for Bitcoin? No. As it gets pricier and transactions fees go up, we get new smaller cryptos like Litecoin or DASH to backfill. Same will happen with smart contract platforms. The blue chips (like ETH and EOS) may get expensive, but the big DApps will afford it and the smaller DApps will start up on new cheaper chains - in EOS case they are often airdropping new chain tokens to existing EOS holders. Check out WORBLI and TELOS. Two EOS forks are already happenning with more niche goals and appeal.
Yes, kind of. Websites can move offshore or even set up on something like TOR if they want to resist censorship. The websites are just a front end to a decentralized back end. Governments can make it harder for the lay-person to access friendly front ends but the savvy uses will always be able to get around it.
Yes. I imagine there will be some dominant/popular cryptos but the way I see it this comes down to personal choice and all we need is some good wallets and seamless low-fee exchanges to abstract away the conversion processes at point-of-sale. Check out Shapeshift - it's an early leader in this space. Also the Nano Ledger S is probably the best hardware wallet available today that supports a lot of currencies and tokens. I see cryptos as more than just currencies and I envision people holding diverse asset portfolios such as shares, bonds, real-estate via crypto-tokens on hardware wallets in future. All that is needed is work on the front end of these wallets to make this easier for the lay-person to do. A bit like when the internet first came out it was hard to use, now it's second nature to just about everyone.
This is an excellent point and it's something I have struggled with recently. A lot of people in crypto are right about the huge benefits of the tech, but the mainstream (in the West) dont really care about decentralisation or privacy. They WILL care about it being cheaper, faster and easy to use though and I remain optimistic that serious dysruption to the status quo will still occur on those fronts. That's one of the main reasons why I am keen on EOS. They have sacrificed some decentralisation and privacy to reach the mainstream.
I imagine that Amazaon and the other FANGs will launch their own crypto tokens in time. In fact I see many businesses having their own tokens to the point where there are millions or even billions of them. A lot will use them like "coupons" or store credit or discounts and for a lot of mainstream this might be the first exposure they get to the tech in the late-adoption phase. The way tokens are starting to be used now it's like holding shares in a company that pay dividends, but you can also use those shares to buy products/services direct from the company. It takes a bit of a mindshift, but the old paradigms of how we use and manage our assets/currencies are being broken, even merged.
I do fear that the mainstream will throw away the last vestiges of their privacy and this could give us an Orwellian future, but as long as there is alternatives (like Monero) for privacy that are not driven underground then the true crypto believers have a fighting chance.
Question #4 is something I worry about and is why I think in the end there will be a handful of "transactional" coins and then a bunch of novelty coins and also a store of value one, likely btc.
Some good questions here and I have some not-too-short answers. It's late here tho. Maybe I'll have a crack tommorrow if I remember :)
Thanks! I would really appreciate your thoughts!
Ok, I'll give you my 2 cents on these.
We don't really need institutional money but it will come eventually anyway. The way I see it the institutions are just vehicles or tools that people use who are too busy (or lazy) to do the research and invest themselves. So, as demand for cryptos increases, demand from institutional clients increases with it and the institutions themselves will respond to that. Maybe I am being too cynical but to my eye most institutions are really just herd followers and parasites. They will come when there is money to be made and their clients demand it.
No, I don't believe so. Is there a maximum upside for Bitcoin? No. As it gets pricier and transactions fees go up, we get new smaller cryptos like Litecoin or DASH to backfill. Same will happen with smart contract platforms. The blue chips (like ETH and EOS) may get expensive, but the big DApps will afford it and the smaller DApps will start up on new cheaper chains - in EOS case they are often airdropping new chain tokens to existing EOS holders. Check out WORBLI and TELOS. Two EOS forks are already happenning with more niche goals and appeal.
Yes, kind of. Websites can move offshore or even set up on something like TOR if they want to resist censorship. The websites are just a front end to a decentralized back end. Governments can make it harder for the lay-person to access friendly front ends but the savvy uses will always be able to get around it.
Yes. I imagine there will be some dominant/popular cryptos but the way I see it this comes down to personal choice and all we need is some good wallets and seamless low-fee exchanges to abstract away the conversion processes at point-of-sale. Check out Shapeshift - it's an early leader in this space. Also the Nano Ledger S is probably the best hardware wallet available today that supports a lot of currencies and tokens. I see cryptos as more than just currencies and I envision people holding diverse asset portfolios such as shares, bonds, real-estate via crypto-tokens on hardware wallets in future. All that is needed is work on the front end of these wallets to make this easier for the lay-person to do. A bit like when the internet first came out it was hard to use, now it's second nature to just about everyone.
This is an excellent point and it's something I have struggled with recently. A lot of people in crypto are right about the huge benefits of the tech, but the mainstream (in the West) dont really care about decentralisation or privacy. They WILL care about it being cheaper, faster and easy to use though and I remain optimistic that serious dysruption to the status quo will still occur on those fronts. That's one of the main reasons why I am keen on EOS. They have sacrificed some decentralisation and privacy to reach the mainstream.
I imagine that Amazaon and the other FANGs will launch their own crypto tokens in time. In fact I see many businesses having their own tokens to the point where there are millions or even billions of them. A lot will use them like "coupons" or store credit or discounts and for a lot of mainstream this might be the first exposure they get to the tech in the late-adoption phase. The way tokens are starting to be used now it's like holding shares in a company that pay dividends, but you can also use those shares to buy products/services direct from the company. It takes a bit of a mindshift, but the old paradigms of how we use and manage our assets/currencies are being broken, even merged.
I do fear that the mainstream will throw away the last vestiges of their privacy and this could give us an Orwellian future, but as long as there is alternatives (like Monero) for privacy that are not driven underground then the true crypto believers have a fighting chance.
Superb analysis. Really appreciate the insight.
Question #4 is something I worry about and is why I think in the end there will be a handful of "transactional" coins and then a bunch of novelty coins and also a store of value one, likely btc.
Yeah I tend to agree, confident in btc for this very reason.
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