Survei Indikator: Jokowi 51,9%, Prabowo 19,2%, Anies 2,2%
The survey was conducted on March 25-31, 2018. The survey was conducted to 1,200 respondents selected by multistage random sampling method. Margin of error from survey + - 2.9%, with 95% confidence level.
The population of this survey is a citizen of Indonesia (WNI) who has the right to vote, which is aged 17 years or older or married when the survey was conducted. Indonesian Political Indicators collect data by face-to-face interviews. Results for the top of mind as follows:
1. Jokowi 51,9%
2. Prabowo 19.2%
3. Anies 2.2%
4. AHY 2.0%
5. Gatot 1.7%
6. Hary Tanoe 1.4%
7. JK 1.0
Do not know / no answer 12.7%
Other names also appear, numbering more than 40 names. However, apart from the seven names above, the elektabilitas of other names is below 1 percent.
For a semit open question, with a candidate name simulation, Jokowi and Prabowo's elektabilitas are both increased by about 5 percent.
"Based on the semi-open trend with the question if the presidential election is held now, with the simulation of 5 names, Jokowi excelled by 56.5%, Prabowo Subianto 24.2% .On the other one frankly per day is not competitive enough.Allies Baswedan 4.1% and Gatot Nurmantyo and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) draw at 2.9%, and undecided voter (TT / T) 9.8%, "said Executive Director Indonesian Political Indicator Burhanuddin Muhtadi in his presentation at the office of Indonesian Political Indicator, Menteng, Jakarta Center, Thursday (3/5/2018).
As for the simulation of 4 names, Jokowi still ahead with 57.3% vote, followed by Prabowo 25.2%, Anies Baswedan 4.5%, and Gatot 3.3%.
"The name of Mas AHY is that AHY's voice is likely to move to Prabowo and a little to Anies," Burhanuddin said. Meanwhile, if Jokowi head to head with Prabowo Subianto, the result, Jokowi remain superior. Jokowi earn 60.6%, while Prabowo 29% and TT / T 10.4%.
"Not just heating the engine alone has got almost 30 percent.If Mr. Jokowi it's muter everywhere," said Burhanuddin.
If head to head with a candidate other than Prabowo, Jokowi remains superior with elektabilitas above 69%. While his opponents, like Anies, got 15.7%, and Gatot 14.5%.
"So if Pak Prabowo does not move forward, it's not just that Pak Prabowo's voters run to anyone else but Jokowi, and some run to Jokowi if according to the data," said Burhanuddin.
Present as a speaker of Golkar politicians as well as Chairman of the House of Representatives Bambang Soesatyo, PKS politician Mardani Ali Sera, and Chairman of the Honorary Board of the Democratic Party. While PDIP politician Maruarar Sirait and Secretary General Gerindra Ahmad Muzani, who is scheduled to attend, until now has not arrived at the location.
Source : DetikNews.com
Survei tersebut dilakukan pada 25-31 Maret 2018. Survei dilakukan kepada 1.200 responden yang dipilih dengan metode multistage random sampling. Margin of error dari survei +- 2,9%, dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95%.
Populasi survei ini adalah warga negara Indonesia (WNI) yang telah memiliki hak pilih, yakni yang sudah berusia 17 tahun atau lebih atau sudah menikah ketika survei dilakukan. Indikator Politik Indonesia mengumpulkan data dengan wawancara lewat tatap muka. Hasil untuk pertanyaan terbuka (top of mind) sebagai berikut:
1. Jokowi 51,9%
2. Prabowo 19,2%
3. Anies 2,2%
4. AHY 2,0%
5. Gatot 1,7%
6. Hary Tanoe 1,4%
7. JK 1,0
Tidak tahu/tidak menjawab 12,7%
Nama-nama lain juga muncul, jumlahnya lebih dari 40 nama. Namun, di luar tujuh nama di atas, elektabilitas nama-nama lain itu di bawah 1 persen. Untuk pertanyaan semiterbuka, dengan simulasi nama calon, elektabilitas Jokowi dan Prabowo sama-sama meningkat sekitar 5 persen.
"Berdasarkan tren semiterbuka dengan pertanyaan jika pemilihan presiden diadakan sekarang, dengan simulasi 5 nama, Jokowi unggul dengan 56,5%, Prabowo Subianto 24,2%. Yang lain terus terang per hari ini belum cukup kompetitif. Anies Baswedan 4,1%, serta Gatot Nurmantyo dan Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) imbang di 2,9%, dan undecided voter (TT/T) 9,8%," ujar Direktur Eksekutif Indikator Politik Indonesia Burhanuddin Muhtadi dalam paparannya di kantor Indikator Politik Indonesia, Menteng, Jakarta Pusat, Kamis (3/5/2018).
Sedangkan untuk simulasi 4 nama, Jokowi tetap unggul dengan perolehan suara 57,3%, disusul Prabowo 25,2%, Anies Baswedan 4,5%, dan Gatot 3,3%.
"Yang diambil nama Mas AHY. Suara Mas AHY ini cenderung berpindah ke Prabowo dan sedikit ke Anies," ujar Burhanuddin. Sementara itu, jika Jokowi head to head dengan Prabowo Subianto, hasilnya, Jokowi tetap unggul. Jokowi memperoleh 60,6%, sedangkan Prabowo 29% dan TT/T 10,4%.
"Belum memanaskan mesin saja sudah mendapat hampir 30 persen. Kalau Pak Jokowi kan sudah muter ke mana-mana,
" kata Burhanuddin. Jika head to head dengan capres selain Prabowo, Jokowi tetap unggul dengan elektabilitas di atas 69%. Sedangkan lawannya, seperti Anies, mendapat perolehan 15,7%, dan Gatot 14,5%.
"Jadi kalau Pak Prabowo nggak maju, itu nggak semata-mata pemilih Pak Prabowo lari ke anyone else but Jokowi. Ada juga yang lari ke Jokowi kalau menurut data," papar Burhanuddin.
Hadir sebagai narasumber politikus Golkar sekaligus Ketua DPR RI Bambang Soesatyo, politikus PKS Mardani Ali Sera, dan Ketua Dewan Kehormatan Partai Demokrat. Sedangkan politikus PDIP Maruarar Sirait dan Sekjen Gerindra Ahmad Muzani, yang dijadwalkan hadir, hingga saat ini belum tiba di lokasi.
Sumber : DetikNews.com
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